Predicting future distributions of lanternfish, a significant ecological resource within the Southern Ocean
Abstract Aim Lanternfish (Myctophidae) are one of the most abundant and ecologically important families of pelagic teleosts, yet how these species will respond to climate change is unclear, especially within polar regions. The aim of this study was to predict the impact of climate change on the dist...
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crwiley:10.1111/ddi.12934 2024-06-23T07:47:20+00:00 Predicting future distributions of lanternfish, a significant ecological resource within the Southern Ocean Freer, Jennifer J. Tarling, Geraint A. Collins, Martin A. Partridge, Julian C. Genner, Martin J. Natural Environment Research Council 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12934 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.12934 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ddi.12934 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Diversity and Distributions volume 25, issue 8, page 1259-1272 ISSN 1366-9516 1472-4642 journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12934 2024-05-31T08:14:34Z Abstract Aim Lanternfish (Myctophidae) are one of the most abundant and ecologically important families of pelagic teleosts, yet how these species will respond to climate change is unclear, especially within polar regions. The aim of this study was to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of Southern Ocean lanternfish and to relate these predicted responses to species traits. Location Circumpolar, 35–75°S. Methods We used MaxEnt ecological niche models to estimate the present and predict the future distributions of 10 biomass‐dominant lanternfish species throughout the region. Future conditions were simulated using eight climate models, in both stabilizing (RCP 4.5) and rising (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios, for the time periods 2006–2055 and 2050–2099. Species responses were then related to their realized thermal niche (i.e., thermal tolerance range), latitudinal preference and body size. Results Despite large variation between climate model simulations, all but one species are consistently predicted to undergo a poleward distribution shift. Species show contrasting projections relating to a gain or loss of suitable habitat which was best explained by their thermal niche. Overall, high‐latitude Antarctic species were found to have narrower thermal niches and a higher likelihood of losing habitat than sub‐Antarctic species. Main conclusions The direction of a species response was dependent on the interplay between physiology (realized thermal niche) and biogeography (latitudinal preference). Antarctic species with restricted thermal niches and limited available habitat in which to disperse will be the most vulnerable group of Southern Ocean lanternfish in the face of climate change. Predicted range shifts may alter the size structure of the myctophid community as smaller, sub‐Antarctic species reach further south. This could have implications for trophic interactions and thus the wider Southern Ocean ecosystem. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean Wiley Online Library Antarctic Southern Ocean Diversity and Distributions |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract Aim Lanternfish (Myctophidae) are one of the most abundant and ecologically important families of pelagic teleosts, yet how these species will respond to climate change is unclear, especially within polar regions. The aim of this study was to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of Southern Ocean lanternfish and to relate these predicted responses to species traits. Location Circumpolar, 35–75°S. Methods We used MaxEnt ecological niche models to estimate the present and predict the future distributions of 10 biomass‐dominant lanternfish species throughout the region. Future conditions were simulated using eight climate models, in both stabilizing (RCP 4.5) and rising (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios, for the time periods 2006–2055 and 2050–2099. Species responses were then related to their realized thermal niche (i.e., thermal tolerance range), latitudinal preference and body size. Results Despite large variation between climate model simulations, all but one species are consistently predicted to undergo a poleward distribution shift. Species show contrasting projections relating to a gain or loss of suitable habitat which was best explained by their thermal niche. Overall, high‐latitude Antarctic species were found to have narrower thermal niches and a higher likelihood of losing habitat than sub‐Antarctic species. Main conclusions The direction of a species response was dependent on the interplay between physiology (realized thermal niche) and biogeography (latitudinal preference). Antarctic species with restricted thermal niches and limited available habitat in which to disperse will be the most vulnerable group of Southern Ocean lanternfish in the face of climate change. Predicted range shifts may alter the size structure of the myctophid community as smaller, sub‐Antarctic species reach further south. This could have implications for trophic interactions and thus the wider Southern Ocean ecosystem. |
author2 |
Natural Environment Research Council |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Freer, Jennifer J. Tarling, Geraint A. Collins, Martin A. Partridge, Julian C. Genner, Martin J. |
spellingShingle |
Freer, Jennifer J. Tarling, Geraint A. Collins, Martin A. Partridge, Julian C. Genner, Martin J. Predicting future distributions of lanternfish, a significant ecological resource within the Southern Ocean |
author_facet |
Freer, Jennifer J. Tarling, Geraint A. Collins, Martin A. Partridge, Julian C. Genner, Martin J. |
author_sort |
Freer, Jennifer J. |
title |
Predicting future distributions of lanternfish, a significant ecological resource within the Southern Ocean |
title_short |
Predicting future distributions of lanternfish, a significant ecological resource within the Southern Ocean |
title_full |
Predicting future distributions of lanternfish, a significant ecological resource within the Southern Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Predicting future distributions of lanternfish, a significant ecological resource within the Southern Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting future distributions of lanternfish, a significant ecological resource within the Southern Ocean |
title_sort |
predicting future distributions of lanternfish, a significant ecological resource within the southern ocean |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12934 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.12934 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ddi.12934 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Diversity and Distributions volume 25, issue 8, page 1259-1272 ISSN 1366-9516 1472-4642 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12934 |
container_title |
Diversity and Distributions |
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1802651423903580160 |