Projected 21st‐century distribution of canopy‐forming seaweeds in the Northwest Atlantic with climate change
Abstract Aim Climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and abundance of marine species, including canopy‐forming seaweeds which provide important ecosystem functions and services. We asked whether continued warming will affect the distribution of six common canopy‐forming species: mid‐in...
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crwiley:10.1111/ddi.12897 2024-10-13T14:09:51+00:00 Projected 21st‐century distribution of canopy‐forming seaweeds in the Northwest Atlantic with climate change Wilson, Kristen L. Skinner, Marc A. Lotze, Heike K. Sorte, Cascade Killam Trusts Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12897 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fddi.12897 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.12897 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ddi.12897 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Diversity and Distributions volume 25, issue 4, page 582-602 ISSN 1366-9516 1472-4642 journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12897 2024-09-23T04:37:21Z Abstract Aim Climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and abundance of marine species, including canopy‐forming seaweeds which provide important ecosystem functions and services. We asked whether continued warming will affect the distribution of six common canopy‐forming species: mid‐intertidal fucoids ( Ascophyllum nodosum, Fucus vesiculosus ), low‐intertidal Irish moss ( Chondrus crispus ), subtidal laminarian kelps ( Saccharina latissima, Laminaria digitata ) and the invasive Codium fragile . Location Northwest Atlantic. Methods We used occurrence records and the correlative presence‐only species distribution model Maxent to determine present‐day distribution. This distribution was compared to each species’ warm‐water physiological thresholds indicating areas of stable or reduced growth and mortality. Present‐day models were then projected to mid‐century (2040–2050) and end‐century (2090–2100) using two contrasting carbon emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and 8.5) and two global climate models from CMIP5 based on changes in ocean temperatures. Results Projected range shifts were minimal under low emissions (RCP2.6), but substantial species‐specific range shifts were projected under high emissions (RCP8.5), with all species except C. fragile predicted to experience a northward shift in their southern (warm) edge of ≤406 km by the year 2100. Northward expansions outweighed southern extirpations for fucoids and C. crispus leading to overall range expansions, while range contractions were projected for kelps and C. fragile. Model projections generally agreed with physiological thresholds but were more conservative suggesting that range shifts for kelps may be underpredicted. Main conclusions Our results highlight the benefits to be gained from strong climate change mitigation (RCP2.6), which would limit changes in rocky shore community distribution and composition. The business‐as‐usual RCP8.5 scenario projected major range shifts, seaweed community reorganization and transitions in dominant species south ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Northwest Atlantic Wiley Online Library Diversity and Distributions 25 4 582 602 |
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English |
description |
Abstract Aim Climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and abundance of marine species, including canopy‐forming seaweeds which provide important ecosystem functions and services. We asked whether continued warming will affect the distribution of six common canopy‐forming species: mid‐intertidal fucoids ( Ascophyllum nodosum, Fucus vesiculosus ), low‐intertidal Irish moss ( Chondrus crispus ), subtidal laminarian kelps ( Saccharina latissima, Laminaria digitata ) and the invasive Codium fragile . Location Northwest Atlantic. Methods We used occurrence records and the correlative presence‐only species distribution model Maxent to determine present‐day distribution. This distribution was compared to each species’ warm‐water physiological thresholds indicating areas of stable or reduced growth and mortality. Present‐day models were then projected to mid‐century (2040–2050) and end‐century (2090–2100) using two contrasting carbon emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and 8.5) and two global climate models from CMIP5 based on changes in ocean temperatures. Results Projected range shifts were minimal under low emissions (RCP2.6), but substantial species‐specific range shifts were projected under high emissions (RCP8.5), with all species except C. fragile predicted to experience a northward shift in their southern (warm) edge of ≤406 km by the year 2100. Northward expansions outweighed southern extirpations for fucoids and C. crispus leading to overall range expansions, while range contractions were projected for kelps and C. fragile. Model projections generally agreed with physiological thresholds but were more conservative suggesting that range shifts for kelps may be underpredicted. Main conclusions Our results highlight the benefits to be gained from strong climate change mitigation (RCP2.6), which would limit changes in rocky shore community distribution and composition. The business‐as‐usual RCP8.5 scenario projected major range shifts, seaweed community reorganization and transitions in dominant species south ... |
author2 |
Sorte, Cascade Killam Trusts Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wilson, Kristen L. Skinner, Marc A. Lotze, Heike K. |
spellingShingle |
Wilson, Kristen L. Skinner, Marc A. Lotze, Heike K. Projected 21st‐century distribution of canopy‐forming seaweeds in the Northwest Atlantic with climate change |
author_facet |
Wilson, Kristen L. Skinner, Marc A. Lotze, Heike K. |
author_sort |
Wilson, Kristen L. |
title |
Projected 21st‐century distribution of canopy‐forming seaweeds in the Northwest Atlantic with climate change |
title_short |
Projected 21st‐century distribution of canopy‐forming seaweeds in the Northwest Atlantic with climate change |
title_full |
Projected 21st‐century distribution of canopy‐forming seaweeds in the Northwest Atlantic with climate change |
title_fullStr |
Projected 21st‐century distribution of canopy‐forming seaweeds in the Northwest Atlantic with climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected 21st‐century distribution of canopy‐forming seaweeds in the Northwest Atlantic with climate change |
title_sort |
projected 21st‐century distribution of canopy‐forming seaweeds in the northwest atlantic with climate change |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12897 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fddi.12897 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.12897 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ddi.12897 |
genre |
Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northwest Atlantic |
op_source |
Diversity and Distributions volume 25, issue 4, page 582-602 ISSN 1366-9516 1472-4642 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12897 |
container_title |
Diversity and Distributions |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
582 |
op_container_end_page |
602 |
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1812816914052808704 |