Lost at high latitudes: Arctic and endemic plants under threat as climate warms
Abstract Aim Species’ biogeographical patterns are already being altered by climate change. Here, we provide predictions of the impacts of a changing climate on species’ geographical ranges within high‐latitude mountain flora on a sub‐continental scale. We then examined the forecasted changes in rel...
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crwiley:10.1111/ddi.12889 2024-09-15T18:02:11+00:00 Lost at high latitudes: Arctic and endemic plants under threat as climate warms Niskanen, Annina Kaisa Johanna Niittynen, Pekka Aalto, Juha Väre, Henry Luoto, Miska Diez, Jeff Koneen Säätiö Academy of Finland Helsingin Yliopisto Koneen Säätiö Academy of Finland 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12889 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fddi.12889 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.12889 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ddi.12889 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Diversity and Distributions volume 25, issue 5, page 809-821 ISSN 1366-9516 1472-4642 journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12889 2024-08-09T04:25:26Z Abstract Aim Species’ biogeographical patterns are already being altered by climate change. Here, we provide predictions of the impacts of a changing climate on species’ geographical ranges within high‐latitude mountain flora on a sub‐continental scale. We then examined the forecasted changes in relation to species’ biogeographic histories. Location Fennoscandia, Northern Europe (55–72°N). Methods We examined the sensitivity of 164 high‐latitude mountain species to changing climate by modelling their distributions in regard to climate, local topography and geology at a 1 km 2 resolution. Using an ensemble of six statistical modelling techniques and data on current (1981–2010) and future (2070–2099) climate based on three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5), we developed projections of current and future ranges. Results The average species richness of the mountain flora is predicted to decrease by 15%–47% per 1 km 2 cell, depending on the climate scenario considered. Arctic flora is projected to undergo severe range loss along with non‐poleward range contractions, while alpine flora is forecasted to find suitable habitat in a warmer North. A substantial majority (71%–92%) of the studied species are projected to lose more than half of their present range by the year 2100. Species predicted to lose all suitable habitat had ranges centred in the northernmost (>68°N) part of continental Europe. Main conclusions Climate change is predicted to substantially diminish the extent and richness of Europe's high‐latitude mountain flora. Interestingly, species' biogeographic histories affect their vulnerability to climate change. The vulnerability of true Arctic and endemic species marks them as highly important for conservation decisions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Climate change Fennoscandia Wiley Online Library Diversity and Distributions 25 5 809 821 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract Aim Species’ biogeographical patterns are already being altered by climate change. Here, we provide predictions of the impacts of a changing climate on species’ geographical ranges within high‐latitude mountain flora on a sub‐continental scale. We then examined the forecasted changes in relation to species’ biogeographic histories. Location Fennoscandia, Northern Europe (55–72°N). Methods We examined the sensitivity of 164 high‐latitude mountain species to changing climate by modelling their distributions in regard to climate, local topography and geology at a 1 km 2 resolution. Using an ensemble of six statistical modelling techniques and data on current (1981–2010) and future (2070–2099) climate based on three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5), we developed projections of current and future ranges. Results The average species richness of the mountain flora is predicted to decrease by 15%–47% per 1 km 2 cell, depending on the climate scenario considered. Arctic flora is projected to undergo severe range loss along with non‐poleward range contractions, while alpine flora is forecasted to find suitable habitat in a warmer North. A substantial majority (71%–92%) of the studied species are projected to lose more than half of their present range by the year 2100. Species predicted to lose all suitable habitat had ranges centred in the northernmost (>68°N) part of continental Europe. Main conclusions Climate change is predicted to substantially diminish the extent and richness of Europe's high‐latitude mountain flora. Interestingly, species' biogeographic histories affect their vulnerability to climate change. The vulnerability of true Arctic and endemic species marks them as highly important for conservation decisions. |
author2 |
Diez, Jeff Koneen Säätiö Academy of Finland Helsingin Yliopisto Koneen Säätiö Academy of Finland |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Niskanen, Annina Kaisa Johanna Niittynen, Pekka Aalto, Juha Väre, Henry Luoto, Miska |
spellingShingle |
Niskanen, Annina Kaisa Johanna Niittynen, Pekka Aalto, Juha Väre, Henry Luoto, Miska Lost at high latitudes: Arctic and endemic plants under threat as climate warms |
author_facet |
Niskanen, Annina Kaisa Johanna Niittynen, Pekka Aalto, Juha Väre, Henry Luoto, Miska |
author_sort |
Niskanen, Annina Kaisa Johanna |
title |
Lost at high latitudes: Arctic and endemic plants under threat as climate warms |
title_short |
Lost at high latitudes: Arctic and endemic plants under threat as climate warms |
title_full |
Lost at high latitudes: Arctic and endemic plants under threat as climate warms |
title_fullStr |
Lost at high latitudes: Arctic and endemic plants under threat as climate warms |
title_full_unstemmed |
Lost at high latitudes: Arctic and endemic plants under threat as climate warms |
title_sort |
lost at high latitudes: arctic and endemic plants under threat as climate warms |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12889 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fddi.12889 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.12889 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ddi.12889 |
genre |
Climate change Fennoscandia |
genre_facet |
Climate change Fennoscandia |
op_source |
Diversity and Distributions volume 25, issue 5, page 809-821 ISSN 1366-9516 1472-4642 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12889 |
container_title |
Diversity and Distributions |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
809 |
op_container_end_page |
821 |
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1810439573084307456 |