A risk‐based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice
Abstract Effective conservation requires monitoring and pro‐active risk assessments. We studied the effects of at‐sea mortality events (ASMEs) in marine mammals over two decades (1990–2012) and built a risk‐based indicator for the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Strandings...
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crwiley:10.1111/conl.12639 2024-06-02T08:13:15+00:00 A risk‐based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice Bouchard, Colin Bracken, Cameron Dabin, Willy Van Canneyt, Olivier Ridoux, Vincent Spitz, Jérôme Authier, Matthieu 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/conl.12639 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fconl.12639 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/conl.12639 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/conl.12639 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Conservation Letters volume 12, issue 4 ISSN 1755-263X 1755-263X journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12639 2024-05-03T11:40:53Z Abstract Effective conservation requires monitoring and pro‐active risk assessments. We studied the effects of at‐sea mortality events (ASMEs) in marine mammals over two decades (1990–2012) and built a risk‐based indicator for the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Strandings of harbor porpoises ( Phocoena phocoena ), short‐beaked common dolphins ( Delphinus delphis ), and striped dolphins ( Stenella coeruleoalba ) along French coastlines were analyzed using Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT operationalizes what is an extreme ASME, and allows the probabilistic forecasting of the expected maximum number of dead animals assuming constant pressures. For the period 2013–2018, we forecast the strandings of 80 harbor porpoises, 860 common dolphins, and 57 striped dolphins in extreme ASMEs. Comparison of these forecasts with observed strandings informs whether pressures are increasing, decreasing, or stable. Applying probabilistic methods to stranding data facilitates the building of risk‐based indicators, required under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, to monitor the effect of pressures on marine mammals. Article in Journal/Newspaper Phocoena phocoena Wiley Online Library Conservation Letters 12 4 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract Effective conservation requires monitoring and pro‐active risk assessments. We studied the effects of at‐sea mortality events (ASMEs) in marine mammals over two decades (1990–2012) and built a risk‐based indicator for the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Strandings of harbor porpoises ( Phocoena phocoena ), short‐beaked common dolphins ( Delphinus delphis ), and striped dolphins ( Stenella coeruleoalba ) along French coastlines were analyzed using Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT operationalizes what is an extreme ASME, and allows the probabilistic forecasting of the expected maximum number of dead animals assuming constant pressures. For the period 2013–2018, we forecast the strandings of 80 harbor porpoises, 860 common dolphins, and 57 striped dolphins in extreme ASMEs. Comparison of these forecasts with observed strandings informs whether pressures are increasing, decreasing, or stable. Applying probabilistic methods to stranding data facilitates the building of risk‐based indicators, required under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, to monitor the effect of pressures on marine mammals. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bouchard, Colin Bracken, Cameron Dabin, Willy Van Canneyt, Olivier Ridoux, Vincent Spitz, Jérôme Authier, Matthieu |
spellingShingle |
Bouchard, Colin Bracken, Cameron Dabin, Willy Van Canneyt, Olivier Ridoux, Vincent Spitz, Jérôme Authier, Matthieu A risk‐based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
author_facet |
Bouchard, Colin Bracken, Cameron Dabin, Willy Van Canneyt, Olivier Ridoux, Vincent Spitz, Jérôme Authier, Matthieu |
author_sort |
Bouchard, Colin |
title |
A risk‐based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
title_short |
A risk‐based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
title_full |
A risk‐based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
title_fullStr |
A risk‐based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
title_full_unstemmed |
A risk‐based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
title_sort |
risk‐based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/conl.12639 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fconl.12639 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/conl.12639 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/conl.12639 |
genre |
Phocoena phocoena |
genre_facet |
Phocoena phocoena |
op_source |
Conservation Letters volume 12, issue 4 ISSN 1755-263X 1755-263X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12639 |
container_title |
Conservation Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1800736681878355968 |