A method to estimate pre‐exploitation population size

Abstract Antarctic fur seals ( Arctocephalus gazella ) were commercially exploited on the subantarctic island of South Georgia for over 100 years and nearly driven to extinction. Since the cessation of harvesting, however, their populations have rebounded, and they are now often considered a nuisanc...

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Published in:Conservation Biology
Main Authors: Foley, Catherine M., Lynch, Heather J.
Other Authors: National Science Foundation, Explorers Club
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2019
Subjects:
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13416
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spelling crwiley:10.1111/cobi.13416 2024-09-15T17:41:29+00:00 A method to estimate pre‐exploitation population size Foley, Catherine M. Lynch, Heather J. National Science Foundation Explorers Club 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13416 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fcobi.13416 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/cobi.13416 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/cobi.13416 https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1111/cobi.13416 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Conservation Biology volume 34, issue 1, page 256-265 ISSN 0888-8892 1523-1739 journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13416 2024-07-30T04:22:18Z Abstract Antarctic fur seals ( Arctocephalus gazella ) were commercially exploited on the subantarctic island of South Georgia for over 100 years and nearly driven to extinction. Since the cessation of harvesting, however, their populations have rebounded, and they are now often considered a nuisance species whose impact on the terrestrial landscape should be mitigated. Any evaluation of their current population requires the context provided by their historic, pre‐exploitation abundance, lest ecologists fall prey to shifting baseline syndrome in which their perspective on current abundance is compared only with an altered state resulting from past anthropogenic disturbance. Estimating pre‐exploitation abundance is critical to defining species recovery and setting recovery targets, both of which are needed for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's recent efforts to develop a green list of recovering species. To address this issue, we reconstructed the South Georgia fur seal harvest from 1786 to 1908 from ship logbooks and other historical records and interpolated missing harvest data as necessary with a generalized linear model fit to the historical record. Using an approximate Bayesian computation framework, harvest data, and a stochastic age‐structured population model, we estimated the pre‐exploitation abundance of Antarctic fur seals on South Georgia was 2.5 million females (95% CI 1.5–3.5 million). This estimate is similar to recent abundance estimates, and suggests current populations, and the ecological consequences of so many fur seals on the island, may be similar to conditions prior to human harvest. Although the historic archive on the fur sealing era is unavoidably patchy, the use of archival records is essential for reconstructing the past and, correspondingly, to understanding the present. Article impact statement : Defining species recovery requires an understanding of baseline population state, which can be estimated through statistical methods. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Fur Seals Arctocephalus gazella Wiley Online Library Conservation Biology 34 1 256 265
institution Open Polar
collection Wiley Online Library
op_collection_id crwiley
language English
description Abstract Antarctic fur seals ( Arctocephalus gazella ) were commercially exploited on the subantarctic island of South Georgia for over 100 years and nearly driven to extinction. Since the cessation of harvesting, however, their populations have rebounded, and they are now often considered a nuisance species whose impact on the terrestrial landscape should be mitigated. Any evaluation of their current population requires the context provided by their historic, pre‐exploitation abundance, lest ecologists fall prey to shifting baseline syndrome in which their perspective on current abundance is compared only with an altered state resulting from past anthropogenic disturbance. Estimating pre‐exploitation abundance is critical to defining species recovery and setting recovery targets, both of which are needed for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's recent efforts to develop a green list of recovering species. To address this issue, we reconstructed the South Georgia fur seal harvest from 1786 to 1908 from ship logbooks and other historical records and interpolated missing harvest data as necessary with a generalized linear model fit to the historical record. Using an approximate Bayesian computation framework, harvest data, and a stochastic age‐structured population model, we estimated the pre‐exploitation abundance of Antarctic fur seals on South Georgia was 2.5 million females (95% CI 1.5–3.5 million). This estimate is similar to recent abundance estimates, and suggests current populations, and the ecological consequences of so many fur seals on the island, may be similar to conditions prior to human harvest. Although the historic archive on the fur sealing era is unavoidably patchy, the use of archival records is essential for reconstructing the past and, correspondingly, to understanding the present. Article impact statement : Defining species recovery requires an understanding of baseline population state, which can be estimated through statistical methods.
author2 National Science Foundation
Explorers Club
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Foley, Catherine M.
Lynch, Heather J.
spellingShingle Foley, Catherine M.
Lynch, Heather J.
A method to estimate pre‐exploitation population size
author_facet Foley, Catherine M.
Lynch, Heather J.
author_sort Foley, Catherine M.
title A method to estimate pre‐exploitation population size
title_short A method to estimate pre‐exploitation population size
title_full A method to estimate pre‐exploitation population size
title_fullStr A method to estimate pre‐exploitation population size
title_full_unstemmed A method to estimate pre‐exploitation population size
title_sort method to estimate pre‐exploitation population size
publisher Wiley
publishDate 2019
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13416
https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fcobi.13416
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/cobi.13416
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/cobi.13416
https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1111/cobi.13416
genre Antarc*
Antarctic
Antarctic Fur Seals
Arctocephalus gazella
genre_facet Antarc*
Antarctic
Antarctic Fur Seals
Arctocephalus gazella
op_source Conservation Biology
volume 34, issue 1, page 256-265
ISSN 0888-8892 1523-1739
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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13416
container_title Conservation Biology
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