An analysis of recent observed climate trends and variability in Labrador

• Published in: Canadian Geographies / Géographies canadiennes
• Main Authors: Finnis, Joel, Bell, Trevor
• Other Authors: ArcticNet
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2015
• Subjects: North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cag.12155; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Fcag.12155; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/cag.12155

Recent warm winters have negatively impacted many rural Labrador residents, raising concerns over regional climate change and variability. To better understand these events, the recent temperature record was examined in detail using atmospheric reanalyses and relevant station data. In addition to quantifying seasonal and annual trends, the influence of major climate drivers is explored and their contributions to recent anomalies are estimated. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are identified as the dominant sources of variability, with the winter NAO producing the largest and most predictable anomalies. These drivers are associated with decadal‐scale variability in the region, including unusually cool conditions from the 1980 s through late 1990 s and a subsequent shift to warmer conditions. Removing the influence of the NAO and other climate drivers greatly reduces the magnitude of recent warm anomalies. However, temperature trends in the residual data are amplified in most seasons, with winter residual trends four times larger than the raw winter data. This suggests that climate change, previously obscured by natural variability, is exerting a significant influence on Labrador. Although climate change likely contributed relatively little to recent extreme events, it is gradually raising the probability of similar future events. Une analyse des dernières tendances climatiques observées et de leur variabilité au Labrador Les hivers chauds des dernières années ont entraîné des effets négatifs sur de nombreux résidents des régions rurales du Labrador et ont suscité des préoccupations sur les changements climatiques et la variabilité au niveau régional. Pour mieux comprendre ces événements, les relevés de température les plus récents ont fait l'objet d'un examen détaillé en tirant parti des réanalyses atmosphériques et des données des stations pertinentes. En plus de quantifier les tendances saisonnières et annuelles, une exploration de l'influence des principaux ...