The COVID‐19 pandemic: key considerations for the epidemic and its control
Abstract The response to the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic has been characterized by draconian measures and far too many important unknowns, such as the true mortality risk, the role of children as transmitters and the development and duration of immunity in the population. More than a year into the pan...
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crwiley:10.1111/apm.13141 2024-09-15T18:14:41+00:00 The COVID‐19 pandemic: key considerations for the epidemic and its control Ørskov, Søren Nielsen, Bjarke Frost Føns, Sofie Sneppen, Kim Simonsen, Lone 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/apm.13141 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/apm.13141 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/apm.13141 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor APMIS volume 129, issue 7, page 408-420 ISSN 0903-4641 1600-0463 journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/apm.13141 2024-07-30T04:21:44Z Abstract The response to the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic has been characterized by draconian measures and far too many important unknowns, such as the true mortality risk, the role of children as transmitters and the development and duration of immunity in the population. More than a year into the pandemic much has been learned and insights into this novel type of pandemic and options for control are shaping up. Using a historical lens, we review what we know and still do not know about the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic. A pandemic caused by a member of the coronavirus family is a new situation following more than a century of influenza A pandemics. However, recent pandemic threats such as outbreaks of the related and novel deadly coronavirus SARS in 2003 and of MERS since 2012 had put coronaviruses on WHOs blueprint list of priority diseases. Like pandemic influenza, SARS‐CoV‐2 is highly transmissible ( R 0 ~ 2.5). Furthermore, it can fly under the radar due to a broad clinical spectrum where asymptomatic and pre‐symptomatic infected persons also transmit the virus—including children. COVID‐19 is far more deadly than seasonal influenza; initial data from China suggested a case fatality rate of 2.3%—which would have been on par with the deadly 1918 Spanish influenza. But, while the Spanish influenza killed young, otherwise healthy adults, it is the elderly who are at extreme risk of dying of COVID‐19. We review available seroepidemiological evidence of infection rates and compute infection fatality rates (IFR) for Denmark (0.5%), Spain (0.85%), and Iceland (0.3%). We also deduce that population age structure is key. SARS‐CoV‐2 is characterized by superspreading, so that ~10% of infected individuals yield 80% of new infections. This phenomenon turns out to be an Achilles heel of the virus that may explain our ability to effectively mitigate outbreaks so far. How will this pandemic come to an end? Herd immunity has not been achieved in Europe due to intense mitigation by non‐pharmaceutical interventions; for example, ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Wiley Online Library APMIS 129 7 408 420 |
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Abstract The response to the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic has been characterized by draconian measures and far too many important unknowns, such as the true mortality risk, the role of children as transmitters and the development and duration of immunity in the population. More than a year into the pandemic much has been learned and insights into this novel type of pandemic and options for control are shaping up. Using a historical lens, we review what we know and still do not know about the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic. A pandemic caused by a member of the coronavirus family is a new situation following more than a century of influenza A pandemics. However, recent pandemic threats such as outbreaks of the related and novel deadly coronavirus SARS in 2003 and of MERS since 2012 had put coronaviruses on WHOs blueprint list of priority diseases. Like pandemic influenza, SARS‐CoV‐2 is highly transmissible ( R 0 ~ 2.5). Furthermore, it can fly under the radar due to a broad clinical spectrum where asymptomatic and pre‐symptomatic infected persons also transmit the virus—including children. COVID‐19 is far more deadly than seasonal influenza; initial data from China suggested a case fatality rate of 2.3%—which would have been on par with the deadly 1918 Spanish influenza. But, while the Spanish influenza killed young, otherwise healthy adults, it is the elderly who are at extreme risk of dying of COVID‐19. We review available seroepidemiological evidence of infection rates and compute infection fatality rates (IFR) for Denmark (0.5%), Spain (0.85%), and Iceland (0.3%). We also deduce that population age structure is key. SARS‐CoV‐2 is characterized by superspreading, so that ~10% of infected individuals yield 80% of new infections. This phenomenon turns out to be an Achilles heel of the virus that may explain our ability to effectively mitigate outbreaks so far. How will this pandemic come to an end? Herd immunity has not been achieved in Europe due to intense mitigation by non‐pharmaceutical interventions; for example, ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ørskov, Søren Nielsen, Bjarke Frost Føns, Sofie Sneppen, Kim Simonsen, Lone |
spellingShingle |
Ørskov, Søren Nielsen, Bjarke Frost Føns, Sofie Sneppen, Kim Simonsen, Lone The COVID‐19 pandemic: key considerations for the epidemic and its control |
author_facet |
Ørskov, Søren Nielsen, Bjarke Frost Føns, Sofie Sneppen, Kim Simonsen, Lone |
author_sort |
Ørskov, Søren |
title |
The COVID‐19 pandemic: key considerations for the epidemic and its control |
title_short |
The COVID‐19 pandemic: key considerations for the epidemic and its control |
title_full |
The COVID‐19 pandemic: key considerations for the epidemic and its control |
title_fullStr |
The COVID‐19 pandemic: key considerations for the epidemic and its control |
title_full_unstemmed |
The COVID‐19 pandemic: key considerations for the epidemic and its control |
title_sort |
covid‐19 pandemic: key considerations for the epidemic and its control |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/apm.13141 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/apm.13141 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/apm.13141 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
APMIS volume 129, issue 7, page 408-420 ISSN 0903-4641 1600-0463 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/apm.13141 |
container_title |
APMIS |
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129 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
408 |
op_container_end_page |
420 |
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1810452451680059392 |