An interim framework for assessing the population consequences of disturbance
Summary Changes in natural patterns of animal behaviour and physiology resulting from anthropogenic disturbance may alter the conservation status of a population if they affect the ability of individuals to survive, breed or grow. However, information to forecast population‐level consequences of suc...
Published in: | Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12411 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2F2041-210X.12411 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/2041-210X.12411 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/2041-210X.12411 https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/2041-210X.12411 |
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crwiley:10.1111/2041-210x.12411 2024-06-23T07:53:30+00:00 An interim framework for assessing the population consequences of disturbance King, Stephanie L. Schick, Robert S. Donovan, Carl Booth, Cormac G. Burgman, Mark Thomas, Len Harwood, John Kurle, Carolyn The Crown Estate NERC's Marine Renewable Energy Knowledge Exchange Office of Naval Research The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland Scottish Funding Council 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12411 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2F2041-210X.12411 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/2041-210X.12411 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/2041-210X.12411 https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/2041-210X.12411 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Methods in Ecology and Evolution volume 6, issue 10, page 1150-1158 ISSN 2041-210X 2041-210X journal-article 2015 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12411 2024-06-11T04:38:54Z Summary Changes in natural patterns of animal behaviour and physiology resulting from anthropogenic disturbance may alter the conservation status of a population if they affect the ability of individuals to survive, breed or grow. However, information to forecast population‐level consequences of such changes is often lacking. We developed an interim framework to assess the population consequences of disturbance when empirical information is sparse. We show how daily effects of disturbance, which are often straightforward to estimate, can be scaled to the disturbance duration and to multiple sources of disturbance. We used expert elicitation to estimate parameters that define how changes in individual behaviour or physiology affect vital rates and incorporated them into a stochastic population model. Model outputs can be used to evaluate cumulative impacts of disturbance over space and time. As an example, we forecast the potential effects of disturbance from offshore wind farm construction on the N orth S ea harbour porpoise ( P hocoena phocoena ) population. Synthesis and applications . The interim framework can be used to forecast the effects of disturbances from human activities on animal populations, to assess the effectiveness of mitigation measures and to identify priority areas for research that reduces uncertainty in population forecasts. The last two applications are likely to be important in situations where there is a risk of unacceptable change in a species' conservation status. The framework should, however, be augmented with empirical data as soon as these are available. Article in Journal/Newspaper Harbour porpoise Wiley Online Library Methods in Ecology and Evolution 6 10 1150 1158 |
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Summary Changes in natural patterns of animal behaviour and physiology resulting from anthropogenic disturbance may alter the conservation status of a population if they affect the ability of individuals to survive, breed or grow. However, information to forecast population‐level consequences of such changes is often lacking. We developed an interim framework to assess the population consequences of disturbance when empirical information is sparse. We show how daily effects of disturbance, which are often straightforward to estimate, can be scaled to the disturbance duration and to multiple sources of disturbance. We used expert elicitation to estimate parameters that define how changes in individual behaviour or physiology affect vital rates and incorporated them into a stochastic population model. Model outputs can be used to evaluate cumulative impacts of disturbance over space and time. As an example, we forecast the potential effects of disturbance from offshore wind farm construction on the N orth S ea harbour porpoise ( P hocoena phocoena ) population. Synthesis and applications . The interim framework can be used to forecast the effects of disturbances from human activities on animal populations, to assess the effectiveness of mitigation measures and to identify priority areas for research that reduces uncertainty in population forecasts. The last two applications are likely to be important in situations where there is a risk of unacceptable change in a species' conservation status. The framework should, however, be augmented with empirical data as soon as these are available. |
author2 |
Kurle, Carolyn The Crown Estate NERC's Marine Renewable Energy Knowledge Exchange Office of Naval Research The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland Scottish Funding Council |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
King, Stephanie L. Schick, Robert S. Donovan, Carl Booth, Cormac G. Burgman, Mark Thomas, Len Harwood, John |
spellingShingle |
King, Stephanie L. Schick, Robert S. Donovan, Carl Booth, Cormac G. Burgman, Mark Thomas, Len Harwood, John An interim framework for assessing the population consequences of disturbance |
author_facet |
King, Stephanie L. Schick, Robert S. Donovan, Carl Booth, Cormac G. Burgman, Mark Thomas, Len Harwood, John |
author_sort |
King, Stephanie L. |
title |
An interim framework for assessing the population consequences of disturbance |
title_short |
An interim framework for assessing the population consequences of disturbance |
title_full |
An interim framework for assessing the population consequences of disturbance |
title_fullStr |
An interim framework for assessing the population consequences of disturbance |
title_full_unstemmed |
An interim framework for assessing the population consequences of disturbance |
title_sort |
interim framework for assessing the population consequences of disturbance |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12411 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2F2041-210X.12411 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/2041-210X.12411 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/2041-210X.12411 https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/2041-210X.12411 |
genre |
Harbour porpoise |
genre_facet |
Harbour porpoise |
op_source |
Methods in Ecology and Evolution volume 6, issue 10, page 1150-1158 ISSN 2041-210X 2041-210X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12411 |
container_title |
Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
1150 |
op_container_end_page |
1158 |
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1802645212007235584 |