Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird
Abstract The population dynamics of many colonially breeding seabirds are characterized by large interannual fluctuations that cannot be explained by environmental conditions alone. This variation may be particularly confounded by the use of skipped breeding by seabirds as a life‐history strategy, w...
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crwiley:10.1111/1365-2656.13827 2024-03-24T08:57:09+00:00 Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird Talis, Emma J. Che‐Castaldo, Christian Şen, Bilgecan Krumhardt, Kristen Lynch, Heather J. 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Journal of Animal Ecology volume 91, issue 12, page 2437-2450 ISSN 0021-8790 1365-2656 Animal Science and Zoology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics journal-article 2022 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 2024-02-28T02:17:13Z Abstract The population dynamics of many colonially breeding seabirds are characterized by large interannual fluctuations that cannot be explained by environmental conditions alone. This variation may be particularly confounded by the use of skipped breeding by seabirds as a life‐history strategy, which directly impacts the number of breeding pairs and may affect the accuracy of breeding abundance as a metric of population health. Additionally, large fluctuations in time series may suggest that the underlying population dynamics are heavy tailed, allowing for a higher likelihood of extreme events than expected under Gaussian dynamics. Here, we investigated the effect of demography on time series for abundance of the Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae and explored the occurrence of heavy‐tailed dynamics in observed Adélie time series. We focus this study on the Adélie penguin as it is an important bellwether species long used to track the impacts of climate change and fishing on the Southern Ocean ecosystem and shares life‐history traits with many colonial seabirds. We quantified the impacts of demographic rates, including skipped breeding, on time series of Adélie abundance simulated using an age‐structured model. We also used observed time series of Adélie breeding abundance at all known Antarctic colonies to classify distributions for abundance as Gaussian or non‐Gaussian heavy tailed. We then identified the cause of such heavy‐tailed dynamics in simulated time series and linked these to spatial patterns in Adélie food resource variability. We found that breeding propensity drives observed breeding fluctuations more than any other vital rate, with high variability in skipped breeding decoupling true abundance from observed breeding abundance. We also found several Antarctic regions characterized by heavy‐tailed dynamics in abundance. These regions were often also characterized by high variability in zooplankton availability. In simulated time series, heavy‐tailed dynamics were strongly linked to high ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Pygoscelis adeliae Southern Ocean Wiley Online Library Antarctic Southern Ocean Journal of Animal Ecology 91 12 2437 2450 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
topic |
Animal Science and Zoology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
spellingShingle |
Animal Science and Zoology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Talis, Emma J. Che‐Castaldo, Christian Şen, Bilgecan Krumhardt, Kristen Lynch, Heather J. Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird |
topic_facet |
Animal Science and Zoology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
description |
Abstract The population dynamics of many colonially breeding seabirds are characterized by large interannual fluctuations that cannot be explained by environmental conditions alone. This variation may be particularly confounded by the use of skipped breeding by seabirds as a life‐history strategy, which directly impacts the number of breeding pairs and may affect the accuracy of breeding abundance as a metric of population health. Additionally, large fluctuations in time series may suggest that the underlying population dynamics are heavy tailed, allowing for a higher likelihood of extreme events than expected under Gaussian dynamics. Here, we investigated the effect of demography on time series for abundance of the Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae and explored the occurrence of heavy‐tailed dynamics in observed Adélie time series. We focus this study on the Adélie penguin as it is an important bellwether species long used to track the impacts of climate change and fishing on the Southern Ocean ecosystem and shares life‐history traits with many colonial seabirds. We quantified the impacts of demographic rates, including skipped breeding, on time series of Adélie abundance simulated using an age‐structured model. We also used observed time series of Adélie breeding abundance at all known Antarctic colonies to classify distributions for abundance as Gaussian or non‐Gaussian heavy tailed. We then identified the cause of such heavy‐tailed dynamics in simulated time series and linked these to spatial patterns in Adélie food resource variability. We found that breeding propensity drives observed breeding fluctuations more than any other vital rate, with high variability in skipped breeding decoupling true abundance from observed breeding abundance. We also found several Antarctic regions characterized by heavy‐tailed dynamics in abundance. These regions were often also characterized by high variability in zooplankton availability. In simulated time series, heavy‐tailed dynamics were strongly linked to high ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Talis, Emma J. Che‐Castaldo, Christian Şen, Bilgecan Krumhardt, Kristen Lynch, Heather J. |
author_facet |
Talis, Emma J. Che‐Castaldo, Christian Şen, Bilgecan Krumhardt, Kristen Lynch, Heather J. |
author_sort |
Talis, Emma J. |
title |
Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird |
title_short |
Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird |
title_full |
Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird |
title_fullStr |
Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird |
title_sort |
variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an antarctic seabird |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Pygoscelis adeliae Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Pygoscelis adeliae Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Journal of Animal Ecology volume 91, issue 12, page 2437-2450 ISSN 0021-8790 1365-2656 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 |
container_title |
Journal of Animal Ecology |
container_volume |
91 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
2437 |
op_container_end_page |
2450 |
_version_ |
1794406643628244992 |