The 2002 European seal plague: epidemiology and population consequences
Abstract We present the first epidemiological data on the 2002 outbreak of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in European harbour seals ( Phoca vitulina ). The epizootic curve to date supports a mortality rate and probability of infection identical to that of the 1988 outbreak, which killed 58% of the po...
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crwiley:10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00390.x 2024-06-23T07:53:31+00:00 The 2002 European seal plague: epidemiology and population consequences C. Harding, Karin Härkönen, Tero Caswell, Hal 2002 http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00390.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1046%2Fj.1461-0248.2002.00390.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00390.x en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Ecology Letters volume 5, issue 6, page 727-732 ISSN 1461-023X 1461-0248 journal-article 2002 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00390.x 2024-06-06T04:21:43Z Abstract We present the first epidemiological data on the 2002 outbreak of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in European harbour seals ( Phoca vitulina ). The epizootic curve to date supports a mortality rate and probability of infection identical to that of the 1988 outbreak, which killed 58% of the population. Thus immunity is playing no significant role in the dynamics of the current outbreak. Because the timing of the outbreak is important in determining local mortality rates, we predict higher mortality rates on the European continent than in Great Britain or Ireland. A stochastic model is used to quantify how recurrent epizootics affect the long‐term growth, fluctuation, and persistence of the population. Recurrent PDV epizootics with the observed frequency and severity would reduce the long‐term stochastic growth rate of the harbour seal population by half, and significantly increase the risk of quasi‐extinction. Article in Journal/Newspaper harbour seal Phoca vitulina Wiley Online Library Ecology Letters 5 6 727 732 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract We present the first epidemiological data on the 2002 outbreak of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in European harbour seals ( Phoca vitulina ). The epizootic curve to date supports a mortality rate and probability of infection identical to that of the 1988 outbreak, which killed 58% of the population. Thus immunity is playing no significant role in the dynamics of the current outbreak. Because the timing of the outbreak is important in determining local mortality rates, we predict higher mortality rates on the European continent than in Great Britain or Ireland. A stochastic model is used to quantify how recurrent epizootics affect the long‐term growth, fluctuation, and persistence of the population. Recurrent PDV epizootics with the observed frequency and severity would reduce the long‐term stochastic growth rate of the harbour seal population by half, and significantly increase the risk of quasi‐extinction. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
C. Harding, Karin Härkönen, Tero Caswell, Hal |
spellingShingle |
C. Harding, Karin Härkönen, Tero Caswell, Hal The 2002 European seal plague: epidemiology and population consequences |
author_facet |
C. Harding, Karin Härkönen, Tero Caswell, Hal |
author_sort |
C. Harding, Karin |
title |
The 2002 European seal plague: epidemiology and population consequences |
title_short |
The 2002 European seal plague: epidemiology and population consequences |
title_full |
The 2002 European seal plague: epidemiology and population consequences |
title_fullStr |
The 2002 European seal plague: epidemiology and population consequences |
title_full_unstemmed |
The 2002 European seal plague: epidemiology and population consequences |
title_sort |
2002 european seal plague: epidemiology and population consequences |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2002 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00390.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1046%2Fj.1461-0248.2002.00390.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00390.x |
genre |
harbour seal Phoca vitulina |
genre_facet |
harbour seal Phoca vitulina |
op_source |
Ecology Letters volume 5, issue 6, page 727-732 ISSN 1461-023X 1461-0248 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00390.x |
container_title |
Ecology Letters |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
727 |
op_container_end_page |
732 |
_version_ |
1802645230858534912 |