Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, recruitment in the Bering Sea and north‐east Pacific Ocean, II: relationships to environmental variables and implications for forecasting
Previous studies have shown that Pacific herring populations in the Bering Sea and north‐east Pacific Ocean can be grouped based on similar recruitment time series. The scale of these groups suggests large‐scale influence on recruitment fluctuations from the environment. Recruitment time series from...
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crwiley:10.1046/j.1365-2419.2000.00146.x 2024-06-02T08:04:19+00:00 Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, recruitment in the Bering Sea and north‐east Pacific Ocean, II: relationships to environmental variables and implications for forecasting Williams, Erik H. Quinn II, Terrance J. 2000 http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2419.2000.00146.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1046%2Fj.1365-2419.2000.00146.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1046/j.1365-2419.2000.00146.x en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Fisheries Oceanography volume 9, issue 4, page 300-315 ISSN 1054-6006 1365-2419 journal-article 2000 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2419.2000.00146.x 2024-05-03T11:04:11Z Previous studies have shown that Pacific herring populations in the Bering Sea and north‐east Pacific Ocean can be grouped based on similar recruitment time series. The scale of these groups suggests large‐scale influence on recruitment fluctuations from the environment. Recruitment time series from 14 populations were analysed to determine links to various environmental variables and to develop recruitment forecasting models using a Ricker‐type environmentally dependent spawner–recruit model. The environmental variables used for this investigation included monthly time series of the following: southern oscillation index, North Pacific pressure index, sea surface temperatures, air temperatures, coastal upwelling indices, Bering Sea wind, Bering Sea ice cover, and Bering Sea bottom temperatures. Exploratory correlation analysis was used for focusing the time period examined for each environmental variable. Candidate models for forecasting herring recruitment were selected by the ordinary and recent cross‐validation prediction errors. Results indicated that forecasting models using air and sea surface temperature data lagged to the year of spawning generally produced the best forecasting models. Multiple environmental variables showed marked improvements in prediction over single‐environmental‐variable models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Bering Sea Sea ice Wiley Online Library Bering Sea Pacific Fisheries Oceanography 9 4 300 315 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Previous studies have shown that Pacific herring populations in the Bering Sea and north‐east Pacific Ocean can be grouped based on similar recruitment time series. The scale of these groups suggests large‐scale influence on recruitment fluctuations from the environment. Recruitment time series from 14 populations were analysed to determine links to various environmental variables and to develop recruitment forecasting models using a Ricker‐type environmentally dependent spawner–recruit model. The environmental variables used for this investigation included monthly time series of the following: southern oscillation index, North Pacific pressure index, sea surface temperatures, air temperatures, coastal upwelling indices, Bering Sea wind, Bering Sea ice cover, and Bering Sea bottom temperatures. Exploratory correlation analysis was used for focusing the time period examined for each environmental variable. Candidate models for forecasting herring recruitment were selected by the ordinary and recent cross‐validation prediction errors. Results indicated that forecasting models using air and sea surface temperature data lagged to the year of spawning generally produced the best forecasting models. Multiple environmental variables showed marked improvements in prediction over single‐environmental‐variable models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Williams, Erik H. Quinn II, Terrance J. |
spellingShingle |
Williams, Erik H. Quinn II, Terrance J. Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, recruitment in the Bering Sea and north‐east Pacific Ocean, II: relationships to environmental variables and implications for forecasting |
author_facet |
Williams, Erik H. Quinn II, Terrance J. |
author_sort |
Williams, Erik H. |
title |
Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, recruitment in the Bering Sea and north‐east Pacific Ocean, II: relationships to environmental variables and implications for forecasting |
title_short |
Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, recruitment in the Bering Sea and north‐east Pacific Ocean, II: relationships to environmental variables and implications for forecasting |
title_full |
Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, recruitment in the Bering Sea and north‐east Pacific Ocean, II: relationships to environmental variables and implications for forecasting |
title_fullStr |
Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, recruitment in the Bering Sea and north‐east Pacific Ocean, II: relationships to environmental variables and implications for forecasting |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, recruitment in the Bering Sea and north‐east Pacific Ocean, II: relationships to environmental variables and implications for forecasting |
title_sort |
pacific herring, clupea pallasi, recruitment in the bering sea and north‐east pacific ocean, ii: relationships to environmental variables and implications for forecasting |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2000 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2419.2000.00146.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1046%2Fj.1365-2419.2000.00146.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1046/j.1365-2419.2000.00146.x |
geographic |
Bering Sea Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea Pacific |
genre |
Bering Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
Fisheries Oceanography volume 9, issue 4, page 300-315 ISSN 1054-6006 1365-2419 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2419.2000.00146.x |
container_title |
Fisheries Oceanography |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
300 |
op_container_end_page |
315 |
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1800748947396886528 |