Efforts to improve predictions of urban winter heating anomalies using various climate indices
Abstract Meteorologists who work in the energy commodities market continue to investigate ways to enhance predictions of seasonal temperature anomalies using oceanic/atmospheric indices. This study examines the relationship of three climate indices –ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), PNA (Pacific...
Published in: | Meteorological Applications |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2002
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1350482702001111 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1017%2FS1350482702001111 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1017/S1350482702001111 |
id |
crwiley:10.1017/s1350482702001111 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crwiley:10.1017/s1350482702001111 2024-06-02T08:11:33+00:00 Efforts to improve predictions of urban winter heating anomalies using various climate indices Changnon, David Thompson, Jeff April, Tony Schmidt, Eric Falout, Mike Davis, Jon B Russo, Mark 2002 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1350482702001111 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1017%2FS1350482702001111 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1017/S1350482702001111 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Meteorological Applications volume 9, issue 1, page 105-111 ISSN 1350-4827 1469-8080 journal-article 2002 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1017/s1350482702001111 2024-05-03T11:52:46Z Abstract Meteorologists who work in the energy commodities market continue to investigate ways to enhance predictions of seasonal temperature anomalies using oceanic/atmospheric indices. This study examines the relationship of three climate indices –ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), PNA (Pacific North American) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) –to heating degree day (HDD) totals accumulated in 11 cities in the Midwest and northeastern United States, to determine which, if any, has predictive power. The data covers the 48‐year period between 1951/52 and 1998/99, and focuses on two periods either side of 1 January (i.e. the winter months of October–December and January–April). The index most strongly related to the HDD anomalies during both winter periods was NAO. NAO values were negative for cold (above‐average HDD) anomalies occurring prior to and after 1 January, while the NAO values were generally positive during warm (below‐average HDD) anomalies. During cold anomalies, the PNA values were generally positive in the three months before 1 January and negative afterwards, indicating that different atmospheric teleconnection patterns cause similar temperature anomalies in these regions. The relationship between the equatorial Pacific sea‐surface temperatures (SST) data and temperature anomalies was the weakest. Confidence in these relationships increased when the extreme HDD anomaly years were examined. These results indicated that the relationships of climate indices to HDD anomalies exist and that these would be useful in developing and improving seasonal predictions for business applications. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Pacific Meteorological Applications 9 1 105 111 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Meteorologists who work in the energy commodities market continue to investigate ways to enhance predictions of seasonal temperature anomalies using oceanic/atmospheric indices. This study examines the relationship of three climate indices –ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), PNA (Pacific North American) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) –to heating degree day (HDD) totals accumulated in 11 cities in the Midwest and northeastern United States, to determine which, if any, has predictive power. The data covers the 48‐year period between 1951/52 and 1998/99, and focuses on two periods either side of 1 January (i.e. the winter months of October–December and January–April). The index most strongly related to the HDD anomalies during both winter periods was NAO. NAO values were negative for cold (above‐average HDD) anomalies occurring prior to and after 1 January, while the NAO values were generally positive during warm (below‐average HDD) anomalies. During cold anomalies, the PNA values were generally positive in the three months before 1 January and negative afterwards, indicating that different atmospheric teleconnection patterns cause similar temperature anomalies in these regions. The relationship between the equatorial Pacific sea‐surface temperatures (SST) data and temperature anomalies was the weakest. Confidence in these relationships increased when the extreme HDD anomaly years were examined. These results indicated that the relationships of climate indices to HDD anomalies exist and that these would be useful in developing and improving seasonal predictions for business applications. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Changnon, David Thompson, Jeff April, Tony Schmidt, Eric Falout, Mike Davis, Jon B Russo, Mark |
spellingShingle |
Changnon, David Thompson, Jeff April, Tony Schmidt, Eric Falout, Mike Davis, Jon B Russo, Mark Efforts to improve predictions of urban winter heating anomalies using various climate indices |
author_facet |
Changnon, David Thompson, Jeff April, Tony Schmidt, Eric Falout, Mike Davis, Jon B Russo, Mark |
author_sort |
Changnon, David |
title |
Efforts to improve predictions of urban winter heating anomalies using various climate indices |
title_short |
Efforts to improve predictions of urban winter heating anomalies using various climate indices |
title_full |
Efforts to improve predictions of urban winter heating anomalies using various climate indices |
title_fullStr |
Efforts to improve predictions of urban winter heating anomalies using various climate indices |
title_full_unstemmed |
Efforts to improve predictions of urban winter heating anomalies using various climate indices |
title_sort |
efforts to improve predictions of urban winter heating anomalies using various climate indices |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2002 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1350482702001111 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1017%2FS1350482702001111 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1017/S1350482702001111 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Meteorological Applications volume 9, issue 1, page 105-111 ISSN 1350-4827 1469-8080 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/s1350482702001111 |
container_title |
Meteorological Applications |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
105 |
op_container_end_page |
111 |
_version_ |
1800757736548335616 |