Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations
Abstract A central goal of population ecology is to understand and predict fluctuations in population numbers. Until recently, much of the debate focused on the issue of population regulation by density‐dependent factors. In this paper, I describe an approach to nonlinear modeling of time‐series dat...
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crwiley:10.1007/bf02515720 2024-06-02T08:06:29+00:00 Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations Turchin, Peter 1996 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02515720 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1007/BF02515720 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Population Ecology volume 38, issue 2, page 121-132 ISSN 1438-3896 1438-390X journal-article 1996 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02515720 2024-05-03T11:20:44Z Abstract A central goal of population ecology is to understand and predict fluctuations in population numbers. Until recently, much of the debate focused on the issue of population regulation by density‐dependent factors. In this paper, I describe an approach to nonlinear modeling of time‐series data that is designed to go beyond this question by investigating the possibility of complex population dynamics, characterized by lags in regulation and periodic or chaotic oscillations. The questions motivating this approach are: what are relative contributions of endogenous vs. exogenous components of dynamics? Is the irregular component in fluctuations entirely due to exogenous noise, or do nonlinearities contribute to it, too? I describe the philosophy and the technical details of the nonlinear modeling approach, and then apply it to a collection of time‐series data on vole population fluctuations in northern Europe. The results suggest that population dynamics of European voles undergo a latitudinal shift from stability to chaos. Dynamics in northern Fennoscandia are characterized by positive Lyapunov exponent estimates, and a high degree of short‐term (one year ahead) predictability, suggesting a strong endogenous component. In more southerly populations estimated Lyapunov exponents are negative, and there is no one‐step ahead predictability, suggesting that fluctuations are driven by exogenous factors. Article in Journal/Newspaper Fennoscandia Wiley Online Library Population Ecology 38 2 121 132 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract A central goal of population ecology is to understand and predict fluctuations in population numbers. Until recently, much of the debate focused on the issue of population regulation by density‐dependent factors. In this paper, I describe an approach to nonlinear modeling of time‐series data that is designed to go beyond this question by investigating the possibility of complex population dynamics, characterized by lags in regulation and periodic or chaotic oscillations. The questions motivating this approach are: what are relative contributions of endogenous vs. exogenous components of dynamics? Is the irregular component in fluctuations entirely due to exogenous noise, or do nonlinearities contribute to it, too? I describe the philosophy and the technical details of the nonlinear modeling approach, and then apply it to a collection of time‐series data on vole population fluctuations in northern Europe. The results suggest that population dynamics of European voles undergo a latitudinal shift from stability to chaos. Dynamics in northern Fennoscandia are characterized by positive Lyapunov exponent estimates, and a high degree of short‐term (one year ahead) predictability, suggesting a strong endogenous component. In more southerly populations estimated Lyapunov exponents are negative, and there is no one‐step ahead predictability, suggesting that fluctuations are driven by exogenous factors. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Turchin, Peter |
spellingShingle |
Turchin, Peter Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations |
author_facet |
Turchin, Peter |
author_sort |
Turchin, Peter |
title |
Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations |
title_short |
Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations |
title_full |
Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations |
title_sort |
nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
1996 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02515720 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1007/BF02515720 |
genre |
Fennoscandia |
genre_facet |
Fennoscandia |
op_source |
Population Ecology volume 38, issue 2, page 121-132 ISSN 1438-3896 1438-390X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02515720 |
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Population Ecology |
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38 |
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2 |
container_start_page |
121 |
op_container_end_page |
132 |
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1800751428282613760 |