Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations

Abstract A central goal of population ecology is to understand and predict fluctuations in population numbers. Until recently, much of the debate focused on the issue of population regulation by density‐dependent factors. In this paper, I describe an approach to nonlinear modeling of time‐series dat...

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Published in:Population Ecology
Main Author: Turchin, Peter
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 1996
Subjects:
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02515720
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1007/BF02515720
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spelling crwiley:10.1007/bf02515720 2024-06-02T08:06:29+00:00 Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations Turchin, Peter 1996 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02515720 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1007/BF02515720 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Population Ecology volume 38, issue 2, page 121-132 ISSN 1438-3896 1438-390X journal-article 1996 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02515720 2024-05-03T11:20:44Z Abstract A central goal of population ecology is to understand and predict fluctuations in population numbers. Until recently, much of the debate focused on the issue of population regulation by density‐dependent factors. In this paper, I describe an approach to nonlinear modeling of time‐series data that is designed to go beyond this question by investigating the possibility of complex population dynamics, characterized by lags in regulation and periodic or chaotic oscillations. The questions motivating this approach are: what are relative contributions of endogenous vs. exogenous components of dynamics? Is the irregular component in fluctuations entirely due to exogenous noise, or do nonlinearities contribute to it, too? I describe the philosophy and the technical details of the nonlinear modeling approach, and then apply it to a collection of time‐series data on vole population fluctuations in northern Europe. The results suggest that population dynamics of European voles undergo a latitudinal shift from stability to chaos. Dynamics in northern Fennoscandia are characterized by positive Lyapunov exponent estimates, and a high degree of short‐term (one year ahead) predictability, suggesting a strong endogenous component. In more southerly populations estimated Lyapunov exponents are negative, and there is no one‐step ahead predictability, suggesting that fluctuations are driven by exogenous factors. Article in Journal/Newspaper Fennoscandia Wiley Online Library Population Ecology 38 2 121 132
institution Open Polar
collection Wiley Online Library
op_collection_id crwiley
language English
description Abstract A central goal of population ecology is to understand and predict fluctuations in population numbers. Until recently, much of the debate focused on the issue of population regulation by density‐dependent factors. In this paper, I describe an approach to nonlinear modeling of time‐series data that is designed to go beyond this question by investigating the possibility of complex population dynamics, characterized by lags in regulation and periodic or chaotic oscillations. The questions motivating this approach are: what are relative contributions of endogenous vs. exogenous components of dynamics? Is the irregular component in fluctuations entirely due to exogenous noise, or do nonlinearities contribute to it, too? I describe the philosophy and the technical details of the nonlinear modeling approach, and then apply it to a collection of time‐series data on vole population fluctuations in northern Europe. The results suggest that population dynamics of European voles undergo a latitudinal shift from stability to chaos. Dynamics in northern Fennoscandia are characterized by positive Lyapunov exponent estimates, and a high degree of short‐term (one year ahead) predictability, suggesting a strong endogenous component. In more southerly populations estimated Lyapunov exponents are negative, and there is no one‐step ahead predictability, suggesting that fluctuations are driven by exogenous factors.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Turchin, Peter
spellingShingle Turchin, Peter
Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations
author_facet Turchin, Peter
author_sort Turchin, Peter
title Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations
title_short Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations
title_full Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations
title_fullStr Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations
title_full_unstemmed Nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations
title_sort nonlinear time‐series modeling of vole population fluctuations
publisher Wiley
publishDate 1996
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02515720
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1007/BF02515720
genre Fennoscandia
genre_facet Fennoscandia
op_source Population Ecology
volume 38, issue 2, page 121-132
ISSN 1438-3896 1438-390X
op_rights http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02515720
container_title Population Ecology
container_volume 38
container_issue 2
container_start_page 121
op_container_end_page 132
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