Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process
Abstract The release of new and updated sea‐level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly rev...
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crwiley:10.1002/wcc.706 2024-06-02T07:57:44+00:00 Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process Nicholls, Robert J. Hanson, Susan E. Lowe, Jason A. Slangen, Aimée B. A. Wahl, Thomas Hinkel, Jochen Long, Antony J. National Science Foundation National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc.706 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.706 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/wcc.706 https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.706 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ WIREs Climate Change volume 12, issue 3 ISSN 1757-7780 1757-7799 journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.706 2024-05-06T07:03:07Z Abstract The release of new and updated sea‐level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly reviewed and updated as needed, reflecting the new information but retaining useful information from earlier assessments. In this paper, updated guidance on the types of SLR information available is presented, including for sea‐level extremes. An intercomparison of the evolution of the headline projected ranges across all the IPCC reports show an increase from the fourth and fifth assessments to the most recent “ Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate ” assessment. IPCC reports have begun to highlight the importance of potential high‐end sea‐level response, mainly reflecting uncertainties in the Greenland/Antarctic ice sheet components, and how this might be considered in scenarios. The methods that are developed here are practical and consider coastal risk assessment, adaptation planning, and long‐term decision‐making to be an ongoing process and ensure that despite the large uncertainties, pragmatic adaptation decisions can be made. It is concluded that new sea‐level information should not be seen as an automatic reason for abandoning existing assessments, but as an opportunity to review (i) the assessment's robustness in the light of new science and (ii) the utility of proactive adaptation and planning strategies, especially over the more uncertain longer term. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Scenario Development and Application Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice Sheet Wiley Online Library Antarctic Greenland WIREs Climate Change 12 3 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
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Abstract The release of new and updated sea‐level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly reviewed and updated as needed, reflecting the new information but retaining useful information from earlier assessments. In this paper, updated guidance on the types of SLR information available is presented, including for sea‐level extremes. An intercomparison of the evolution of the headline projected ranges across all the IPCC reports show an increase from the fourth and fifth assessments to the most recent “ Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate ” assessment. IPCC reports have begun to highlight the importance of potential high‐end sea‐level response, mainly reflecting uncertainties in the Greenland/Antarctic ice sheet components, and how this might be considered in scenarios. The methods that are developed here are practical and consider coastal risk assessment, adaptation planning, and long‐term decision‐making to be an ongoing process and ensure that despite the large uncertainties, pragmatic adaptation decisions can be made. It is concluded that new sea‐level information should not be seen as an automatic reason for abandoning existing assessments, but as an opportunity to review (i) the assessment's robustness in the light of new science and (ii) the utility of proactive adaptation and planning strategies, especially over the more uncertain longer term. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Scenario Development and Application |
author2 |
National Science Foundation National Aeronautics and Space Administration |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nicholls, Robert J. Hanson, Susan E. Lowe, Jason A. Slangen, Aimée B. A. Wahl, Thomas Hinkel, Jochen Long, Antony J. |
spellingShingle |
Nicholls, Robert J. Hanson, Susan E. Lowe, Jason A. Slangen, Aimée B. A. Wahl, Thomas Hinkel, Jochen Long, Antony J. Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process |
author_facet |
Nicholls, Robert J. Hanson, Susan E. Lowe, Jason A. Slangen, Aimée B. A. Wahl, Thomas Hinkel, Jochen Long, Antony J. |
author_sort |
Nicholls, Robert J. |
title |
Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process |
title_short |
Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process |
title_full |
Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process |
title_fullStr |
Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process |
title_full_unstemmed |
Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process |
title_sort |
integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: an ongoing process |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc.706 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.706 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/wcc.706 https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.706 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
WIREs Climate Change volume 12, issue 3 ISSN 1757-7780 1757-7799 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.706 |
container_title |
WIREs Climate Change |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
3 |
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1800740926895685632 |