Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions
Abstract On interannual to decadal time scales, memory in the Earth's climate system resides to a large extent in the slowly varying heat content of the ocean, which responds to fast atmospheric variability and in turn sets the frame for large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns. This large‐...
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crwiley:10.1002/wcc.637 2024-06-23T07:55:11+00:00 Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions Brune, Sebastian Baehr, Johanna Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc.637 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.637 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/wcc.637 https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.637 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ WIREs Climate Change volume 11, issue 3 ISSN 1757-7780 1757-7799 journal-article 2020 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.637 2024-06-13T04:20:59Z Abstract On interannual to decadal time scales, memory in the Earth's climate system resides to a large extent in the slowly varying heat content of the ocean, which responds to fast atmospheric variability and in turn sets the frame for large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns. This large‐scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is generally well represented in today's Earth system models. This may fundamentally change when data assimilation is used to bring such models close to an observed state to initialize interannual to decadal climate predictions. Here, we review how the large‐scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is preserved in common approaches to construct such initial conditions, with the focus on the initialized ocean state. In a set of decadal prediction experiments, ranging from an initialization of atmospheric variability only to full‐field nudging of both atmosphere and ocean, we evaluate the variability and predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, of the Atlantic multidecadal variability and North Atlantic subpolar gyre sea surface temperatures. We argue that the quality of initial conditions for decadal predictions should not purely be assessed by their closeness to observations, but also by the closeness of their respective predictions to observations. This prediction quality may depend on the representation of the simulated large‐scale atmosphere–ocean feedback. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Wiley Online Library WIREs Climate Change 11 3 |
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English |
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Abstract On interannual to decadal time scales, memory in the Earth's climate system resides to a large extent in the slowly varying heat content of the ocean, which responds to fast atmospheric variability and in turn sets the frame for large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns. This large‐scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is generally well represented in today's Earth system models. This may fundamentally change when data assimilation is used to bring such models close to an observed state to initialize interannual to decadal climate predictions. Here, we review how the large‐scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is preserved in common approaches to construct such initial conditions, with the focus on the initialized ocean state. In a set of decadal prediction experiments, ranging from an initialization of atmospheric variability only to full‐field nudging of both atmosphere and ocean, we evaluate the variability and predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, of the Atlantic multidecadal variability and North Atlantic subpolar gyre sea surface temperatures. We argue that the quality of initial conditions for decadal predictions should not purely be assessed by their closeness to observations, but also by the closeness of their respective predictions to observations. This prediction quality may depend on the representation of the simulated large‐scale atmosphere–ocean feedback. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models |
author2 |
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Brune, Sebastian Baehr, Johanna |
spellingShingle |
Brune, Sebastian Baehr, Johanna Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
author_facet |
Brune, Sebastian Baehr, Johanna |
author_sort |
Brune, Sebastian |
title |
Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
title_short |
Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
title_full |
Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
title_fullStr |
Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
title_sort |
preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc.637 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.637 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/wcc.637 https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.637 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
WIREs Climate Change volume 11, issue 3 ISSN 1757-7780 1757-7799 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.637 |
container_title |
WIREs Climate Change |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
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1802647645748985856 |