Observation‐based detection and attribution of 21st century climate change
Climate change detection and attribution have proven unexpectedly challenging during the 21st century. Earth’s global surface temperature increased less rapidly from 2000 to 2015 than during the last half of the 20th century, even though greenhouse gas concentrations continued to increase. A probabl...
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crwiley:10.1002/wcc.511 2024-06-02T08:02:35+00:00 Observation‐based detection and attribution of 21st century climate change Lean, Judith L. Chief of Naval Research 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc.511 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fwcc.511 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.511 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/wcc.511 https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.511 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor WIREs Climate Change volume 9, issue 2 ISSN 1757-7780 1757-7799 journal-article 2018 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.511 2024-05-03T12:02:42Z Climate change detection and attribution have proven unexpectedly challenging during the 21st century. Earth’s global surface temperature increased less rapidly from 2000 to 2015 than during the last half of the 20th century, even though greenhouse gas concentrations continued to increase. A probable explanation is the mitigation of anthropogenic warming by La Niña cooling and declining solar irradiance. Physical climate models overestimated recent global warming because they did not generate the observed phase of La Niña cooling and may also have underestimated cooling by declining solar irradiance. Ongoing scientific investigations continue to seek alternative explanations to account for the divergence of simulated and observed climate change in the early 21st century, which IPCC termed a “global warming hiatus.” Amplified by media commentary, the suggestions by these studies that “missing” mechanisms may be influencing climate exacerbates confusion among policy makers, the public and other stakeholders about the causes and reality of modern climate change. Understanding and communicating the causes of climate change in the next 20 years may be equally challenging. Predictions of the modulation of projected anthropogenic warming by natural processes have limited skill. The rapid warming at the end of 2015, for example, is not a resumption of anthropogenic warming but rather an amplification of ongoing warming by El Niño. Furthermore, emerging feedbacks and tipping points precipitated by, for example, melting summer Arctic sea ice may alter Earth’s global temperature in ways that even the most sophisticated physical climate models do not yet replicate. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Climate Forcing Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice Wiley Online Library Arctic WIREs Climate Change 9 2 |
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Climate change detection and attribution have proven unexpectedly challenging during the 21st century. Earth’s global surface temperature increased less rapidly from 2000 to 2015 than during the last half of the 20th century, even though greenhouse gas concentrations continued to increase. A probable explanation is the mitigation of anthropogenic warming by La Niña cooling and declining solar irradiance. Physical climate models overestimated recent global warming because they did not generate the observed phase of La Niña cooling and may also have underestimated cooling by declining solar irradiance. Ongoing scientific investigations continue to seek alternative explanations to account for the divergence of simulated and observed climate change in the early 21st century, which IPCC termed a “global warming hiatus.” Amplified by media commentary, the suggestions by these studies that “missing” mechanisms may be influencing climate exacerbates confusion among policy makers, the public and other stakeholders about the causes and reality of modern climate change. Understanding and communicating the causes of climate change in the next 20 years may be equally challenging. Predictions of the modulation of projected anthropogenic warming by natural processes have limited skill. The rapid warming at the end of 2015, for example, is not a resumption of anthropogenic warming but rather an amplification of ongoing warming by El Niño. Furthermore, emerging feedbacks and tipping points precipitated by, for example, melting summer Arctic sea ice may alter Earth’s global temperature in ways that even the most sophisticated physical climate models do not yet replicate. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Climate Forcing |
author2 |
Chief of Naval Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lean, Judith L. |
spellingShingle |
Lean, Judith L. Observation‐based detection and attribution of 21st century climate change |
author_facet |
Lean, Judith L. |
author_sort |
Lean, Judith L. |
title |
Observation‐based detection and attribution of 21st century climate change |
title_short |
Observation‐based detection and attribution of 21st century climate change |
title_full |
Observation‐based detection and attribution of 21st century climate change |
title_fullStr |
Observation‐based detection and attribution of 21st century climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observation‐based detection and attribution of 21st century climate change |
title_sort |
observation‐based detection and attribution of 21st century climate change |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc.511 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fwcc.511 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.511 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/wcc.511 https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.511 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
WIREs Climate Change volume 9, issue 2 ISSN 1757-7780 1757-7799 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.511 |
container_title |
WIREs Climate Change |
container_volume |
9 |
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2 |
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1800747069812506624 |