A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia
Abstract This study develops a procedure for seasonal forecasting river discharge from headwaters above strategically important hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole indices were used as inputs. Predictab...
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crwiley:10.1002/rra.3506 2024-06-02T08:11:30+00:00 A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia Dixon, Samuel G. Wilby, Robert L. 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/rra.3506 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Frra.3506 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/rra.3506 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/rra.3506 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor River Research and Applications volume 35, issue 8, page 1141-1154 ISSN 1535-1459 1535-1467 journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3506 2024-05-03T12:01:13Z Abstract This study develops a procedure for seasonal forecasting river discharge from headwaters above strategically important hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole indices were used as inputs. Predictability was evaluated for average summer inflows conditional on the tercile of the preceding winter climate mode. We find that the winter Niño 3.4 index was significantly positively correlated with following summer inflows to Nurek, Andijan, and Toktogul reservoirs during the period 1941–1980. Kruskal–Wallis and Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests show significant differences in the distributions of summer inflows depending on previous winter Niño 3.4 for all three reservoirs. At Nurek, summer inflows were on average 19% greater following a winter El Niño. During 1941–2016, mean summer inflows to Nurek reservoir linked to previous November–December Niño 3.4 achieved a Heidke Hit Proportion of 51–59% (compared with 33% expected by chance). Acceptable predictions of summer inflow volume were made 44% of the time. Higher inflows are explained by a south‐westerly moisture flux that brings above average precipitation to Central Asia during winter El Niño conditions. Our procedure requires limited data, technical or computing resources—all considerations in data sparse, low capacity regions. Given planned developments of other large, headwater impoundments in Central Asia, early outlooks of discharge could contribute to improved dam safety, economic performance, and transboundary water sharing around such projects. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Indian River Research and Applications 35 8 1141 1154 |
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English |
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Abstract This study develops a procedure for seasonal forecasting river discharge from headwaters above strategically important hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole indices were used as inputs. Predictability was evaluated for average summer inflows conditional on the tercile of the preceding winter climate mode. We find that the winter Niño 3.4 index was significantly positively correlated with following summer inflows to Nurek, Andijan, and Toktogul reservoirs during the period 1941–1980. Kruskal–Wallis and Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests show significant differences in the distributions of summer inflows depending on previous winter Niño 3.4 for all three reservoirs. At Nurek, summer inflows were on average 19% greater following a winter El Niño. During 1941–2016, mean summer inflows to Nurek reservoir linked to previous November–December Niño 3.4 achieved a Heidke Hit Proportion of 51–59% (compared with 33% expected by chance). Acceptable predictions of summer inflow volume were made 44% of the time. Higher inflows are explained by a south‐westerly moisture flux that brings above average precipitation to Central Asia during winter El Niño conditions. Our procedure requires limited data, technical or computing resources—all considerations in data sparse, low capacity regions. Given planned developments of other large, headwater impoundments in Central Asia, early outlooks of discharge could contribute to improved dam safety, economic performance, and transboundary water sharing around such projects. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dixon, Samuel G. Wilby, Robert L. |
spellingShingle |
Dixon, Samuel G. Wilby, Robert L. A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia |
author_facet |
Dixon, Samuel G. Wilby, Robert L. |
author_sort |
Dixon, Samuel G. |
title |
A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia |
title_short |
A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia |
title_full |
A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia |
title_fullStr |
A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia |
title_full_unstemmed |
A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia |
title_sort |
seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in central asia |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/rra.3506 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Frra.3506 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/rra.3506 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/rra.3506 |
geographic |
Indian |
geographic_facet |
Indian |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
River Research and Applications volume 35, issue 8, page 1141-1154 ISSN 1535-1459 1535-1467 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3506 |
container_title |
River Research and Applications |
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35 |
container_issue |
8 |
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1141 |
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1154 |
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1800757666991046656 |