Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone biases in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts
Extratropical cyclones influence midlatitude surface weather directly via precipitation and wind and indirectly via upscale feedbacks on the large‐scale flow. Biases in cyclone frequency and characteristics in medium‐range to subseasonal numerical weather prediction might therefore hinder exploitati...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4638 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4638 |
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.4638 2024-06-02T08:11:38+00:00 Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone biases in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts Büeler, Dominik Sprenger, Michael Wernli, Heini Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4638 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4638 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 150, issue 759, page 1096-1123 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2024 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4638 2024-05-03T10:54:49Z Extratropical cyclones influence midlatitude surface weather directly via precipitation and wind and indirectly via upscale feedbacks on the large‐scale flow. Biases in cyclone frequency and characteristics in medium‐range to subseasonal numerical weather prediction might therefore hinder exploitation of potential predictability on these timescales. We thus, for the first time, identify and track extratropical cyclones in 20 years (2000–2020) of subseasonal ensemble reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the Northern Hemisphere in all seasons. The reforecasts reproduce the climatology of cyclone frequency and life‐cycle characteristics qualitatively well up to six weeks ahead. However, there are significant regional biases in cyclone frequency, which can result from a complex combination of biases in cyclone genesis, size, location, lifetime, and propagation speed. Their magnitude is largest in summer, with the strongest regional deficit of cyclones of more than 30% in the North Atlantic, relatively large in spring, and smallest in winter and autumn. Moreover, the reforecast cyclones reach too‐high intensities during most seasons, although intensification rates are captured well. An overestimation of cyclone lifetime might partly but not exclusively explain this intensity bias. While the cyclone bias patterns often appear in lead‐time weeks 1 and 2, their magnitudes typically grow further at subseasonal lead times, in some cases up to weeks 5 and 6. Most of the dynamical sources of these biases thus likely appear in the early medium range, but sources on longer timescales probably contribute to the further increase of biases with lead time. Our study provides a useful basis to identify, better understand, and ultimately reduce biases in the large‐scale flow and in surface weather in subseasonal weather forecasts. Given the considerable biases during summer, when subseasonal predictions of precipitation and surface temperature will become increasingly important, this ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Wiley Online Library Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 150 759 1096 1123 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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language |
English |
description |
Extratropical cyclones influence midlatitude surface weather directly via precipitation and wind and indirectly via upscale feedbacks on the large‐scale flow. Biases in cyclone frequency and characteristics in medium‐range to subseasonal numerical weather prediction might therefore hinder exploitation of potential predictability on these timescales. We thus, for the first time, identify and track extratropical cyclones in 20 years (2000–2020) of subseasonal ensemble reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the Northern Hemisphere in all seasons. The reforecasts reproduce the climatology of cyclone frequency and life‐cycle characteristics qualitatively well up to six weeks ahead. However, there are significant regional biases in cyclone frequency, which can result from a complex combination of biases in cyclone genesis, size, location, lifetime, and propagation speed. Their magnitude is largest in summer, with the strongest regional deficit of cyclones of more than 30% in the North Atlantic, relatively large in spring, and smallest in winter and autumn. Moreover, the reforecast cyclones reach too‐high intensities during most seasons, although intensification rates are captured well. An overestimation of cyclone lifetime might partly but not exclusively explain this intensity bias. While the cyclone bias patterns often appear in lead‐time weeks 1 and 2, their magnitudes typically grow further at subseasonal lead times, in some cases up to weeks 5 and 6. Most of the dynamical sources of these biases thus likely appear in the early medium range, but sources on longer timescales probably contribute to the further increase of biases with lead time. Our study provides a useful basis to identify, better understand, and ultimately reduce biases in the large‐scale flow and in surface weather in subseasonal weather forecasts. Given the considerable biases during summer, when subseasonal predictions of precipitation and surface temperature will become increasingly important, this ... |
author2 |
Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Büeler, Dominik Sprenger, Michael Wernli, Heini |
spellingShingle |
Büeler, Dominik Sprenger, Michael Wernli, Heini Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone biases in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts |
author_facet |
Büeler, Dominik Sprenger, Michael Wernli, Heini |
author_sort |
Büeler, Dominik |
title |
Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone biases in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts |
title_short |
Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone biases in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts |
title_full |
Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone biases in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone biases in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone biases in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts |
title_sort |
northern hemisphere extratropical cyclone biases in ecmwf subseasonal forecasts |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4638 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4638 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 150, issue 759, page 1096-1123 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4638 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
150 |
container_issue |
759 |
container_start_page |
1096 |
op_container_end_page |
1123 |
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1800757856406863872 |