The possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area, Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation
Abstract We investigated the possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area (SIA), Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in December–January (DJ) and February–March (FM) using the ERA5 data for the period December 1979–March 2022. The Barents–Kara SIA loss in December is corr...
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.4560 2024-06-02T08:09:45+00:00 The possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area, Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation Ahmadi, Ramin Alizadeh, Omid 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4560 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4560 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 149, issue 757, page 3357-3372 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2023 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4560 2024-05-06T06:56:55Z Abstract We investigated the possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area (SIA), Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in December–January (DJ) and February–March (FM) using the ERA5 data for the period December 1979–March 2022. The Barents–Kara SIA loss in December is correlated with an increase in geopotential height at 500 hPa (), mean sea‐level pressure (MSLP), and the frequency and intensity of blocking over the Ural in DJ. The Barents–Kara SIA loss in December is also associated with the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in FM (particularly in mid‐February) and the negative NAO index. However, our results show that persistent Ural blocking occurs during the transition from a neutral or positive NAO index to its negative phase. Indeed, a significant decrease in NAO index leads to the development of an area of instantaneous blocking (IB) and positive anomalies over the Ural. Persistent Ural blocking contributes significantly to Barents–Kara SIA loss, with a peak decline about seven days after the onset of Ural blocking. The onset of persistent Ural blocking also precedes the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by about one month. This implies that the negative correlation between the Barents–Kara SIA loss in December and the NAO index in FM might be caused by the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, which itself is induced by persistent Ural blocking. We conclude that the Barents–Kara SIA loss in December can be viewed as a sign rather than the cause of changes in atmospheric circulation over the high‐latitude North Atlantic in succeeding months, because the Barents–Kara SIA also largely responds to Ural blocking and the NAO. Article in Journal/Newspaper Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Wiley Online Library Kara Sea Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 149 757 3357 3372 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract We investigated the possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area (SIA), Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in December–January (DJ) and February–March (FM) using the ERA5 data for the period December 1979–March 2022. The Barents–Kara SIA loss in December is correlated with an increase in geopotential height at 500 hPa (), mean sea‐level pressure (MSLP), and the frequency and intensity of blocking over the Ural in DJ. The Barents–Kara SIA loss in December is also associated with the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in FM (particularly in mid‐February) and the negative NAO index. However, our results show that persistent Ural blocking occurs during the transition from a neutral or positive NAO index to its negative phase. Indeed, a significant decrease in NAO index leads to the development of an area of instantaneous blocking (IB) and positive anomalies over the Ural. Persistent Ural blocking contributes significantly to Barents–Kara SIA loss, with a peak decline about seven days after the onset of Ural blocking. The onset of persistent Ural blocking also precedes the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by about one month. This implies that the negative correlation between the Barents–Kara SIA loss in December and the NAO index in FM might be caused by the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, which itself is induced by persistent Ural blocking. We conclude that the Barents–Kara SIA loss in December can be viewed as a sign rather than the cause of changes in atmospheric circulation over the high‐latitude North Atlantic in succeeding months, because the Barents–Kara SIA also largely responds to Ural blocking and the NAO. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ahmadi, Ramin Alizadeh, Omid |
spellingShingle |
Ahmadi, Ramin Alizadeh, Omid The possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area, Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation |
author_facet |
Ahmadi, Ramin Alizadeh, Omid |
author_sort |
Ahmadi, Ramin |
title |
The possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area, Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_short |
The possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area, Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_full |
The possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area, Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_fullStr |
The possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area, Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_full_unstemmed |
The possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area, Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_sort |
possible links between the barents–kara sea‐ice area, ural blocking, and the north atlantic oscillation |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4560 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4560 |
geographic |
Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Kara Sea |
genre |
Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 149, issue 757, page 3357-3372 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4560 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
149 |
container_issue |
757 |
container_start_page |
3357 |
op_container_end_page |
3372 |
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1800755517835968512 |