Investigation of the trigger perturbation for a simulated case of arctic oscillation transition using initial‐condition perturbation denial experiments
Abstract This case study seeks to identify the initial‐condition perturbation structure that triggers a prominent example of the positive‐ to negative‐phase arctic oscillation (+AO to −AO) transition in a numerical forecast ensemble. Experiments with spectral filtering and perturbation‐denial sensit...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4417 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4417 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.4417 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1002/qj.4417 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4417 |
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.4417 2024-06-02T08:01:54+00:00 Investigation of the trigger perturbation for a simulated case of arctic oscillation transition using initial‐condition perturbation denial experiments McLay, Justin G. Doyle, James D. U.S. Naval Research Laboratory 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4417 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4417 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.4417 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1002/qj.4417 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4417 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 149, issue 751, page 453-471 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2023 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4417 2024-05-03T11:59:33Z Abstract This case study seeks to identify the initial‐condition perturbation structure that triggers a prominent example of the positive‐ to negative‐phase arctic oscillation (+AO to −AO) transition in a numerical forecast ensemble. Experiments with spectral filtering and perturbation‐denial sensitivity analysis are used to test the hypothesis that the transition originated from a localized perturbation feature. The denial experiments are guided by binary search, anomaly detection, and adjoint sensitivity methods. The spectral filtering experiments indicate that perturbation scales in the wavenumber range v ∊ [10, 30] are critical to initiating the transition. Conversely, neither the largest perturbation scales ( v < 10) nor the smallest scales ( v > 30) have significant influence on the transition. The perturbation denial experiments likewise find no evidence to support the hypothesis that a localized perturbation feature initiates the transition. Rather, the transition is only substantially curtailed when the perturbation denial is applied across a broad portion of the domain. In effect, the trigger perturbation behaves like a redundant system, such that the initiation of transition does not critically depend on any singular perturbation feature. Practically, the redundant nature of the trigger means that if one wants to severely constrain the AO index forecast uncertainty such that its envelope falls within only one phase of the AO, then it will require very broad and unfeasible reduction of initial condition errors. However, the denial experiments also indicate that the triggering of transition and the subsequent amplification within the −AO phase are somewhat independent processes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Wiley Online Library Arctic Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 149 751 453 471 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract This case study seeks to identify the initial‐condition perturbation structure that triggers a prominent example of the positive‐ to negative‐phase arctic oscillation (+AO to −AO) transition in a numerical forecast ensemble. Experiments with spectral filtering and perturbation‐denial sensitivity analysis are used to test the hypothesis that the transition originated from a localized perturbation feature. The denial experiments are guided by binary search, anomaly detection, and adjoint sensitivity methods. The spectral filtering experiments indicate that perturbation scales in the wavenumber range v ∊ [10, 30] are critical to initiating the transition. Conversely, neither the largest perturbation scales ( v < 10) nor the smallest scales ( v > 30) have significant influence on the transition. The perturbation denial experiments likewise find no evidence to support the hypothesis that a localized perturbation feature initiates the transition. Rather, the transition is only substantially curtailed when the perturbation denial is applied across a broad portion of the domain. In effect, the trigger perturbation behaves like a redundant system, such that the initiation of transition does not critically depend on any singular perturbation feature. Practically, the redundant nature of the trigger means that if one wants to severely constrain the AO index forecast uncertainty such that its envelope falls within only one phase of the AO, then it will require very broad and unfeasible reduction of initial condition errors. However, the denial experiments also indicate that the triggering of transition and the subsequent amplification within the −AO phase are somewhat independent processes. |
author2 |
U.S. Naval Research Laboratory |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
McLay, Justin G. Doyle, James D. |
spellingShingle |
McLay, Justin G. Doyle, James D. Investigation of the trigger perturbation for a simulated case of arctic oscillation transition using initial‐condition perturbation denial experiments |
author_facet |
McLay, Justin G. Doyle, James D. |
author_sort |
McLay, Justin G. |
title |
Investigation of the trigger perturbation for a simulated case of arctic oscillation transition using initial‐condition perturbation denial experiments |
title_short |
Investigation of the trigger perturbation for a simulated case of arctic oscillation transition using initial‐condition perturbation denial experiments |
title_full |
Investigation of the trigger perturbation for a simulated case of arctic oscillation transition using initial‐condition perturbation denial experiments |
title_fullStr |
Investigation of the trigger perturbation for a simulated case of arctic oscillation transition using initial‐condition perturbation denial experiments |
title_full_unstemmed |
Investigation of the trigger perturbation for a simulated case of arctic oscillation transition using initial‐condition perturbation denial experiments |
title_sort |
investigation of the trigger perturbation for a simulated case of arctic oscillation transition using initial‐condition perturbation denial experiments |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4417 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4417 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.4417 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1002/qj.4417 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4417 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 149, issue 751, page 453-471 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4417 |
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Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
149 |
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751 |
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453 |
op_container_end_page |
471 |
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1800746396649783296 |