Aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the North Atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence
Abstract Multiple studies have considered whether increased anthropogenic CO 2 will affect the wind speeds and turbulence associated with the winter North Atlantic polar‐front jet stream in the upper atmosphere. Key questions are whether any effects can already be seen and, if so, can they be seen i...
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.4342 2024-09-15T18:21:22+00:00 Aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the North Atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence Tenenbaum, Joel Williams, Paul D. Turp, Debi Buchanan, Piers Coulson, Robert Gill, Philip G. Lunnon, Robert W. Oztunali, Marguerite G. Rankin, John Rukhovets, Leonid Goddard Space Flight Center State University of New York National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka Met Office 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4342 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4342 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.4342 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4342 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 148, issue 747, page 2927-2941 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2022 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4342 2024-07-11T04:37:49Z Abstract Multiple studies have considered whether increased anthropogenic CO 2 will affect the wind speeds and turbulence associated with the winter North Atlantic polar‐front jet stream in the upper atmosphere. Key questions are whether any effects can already be seen and, if so, can they be seen independent of computer models of the atmosphere. In this study we use two reanalyses, NCEP/NCAR and the ECMWF ERA5, and two large observational archives, AMDAR/ACARS and the Global Aircraft Data Set (GADS), to try to answer these questions for the period 2002–2020 when automated aircraft observations were plentiful over the North Atlantic. We focus on eastbound, New York to London, flights. No significant increase appears in reanalyses during the last roughly 40 years (1979–2020) which is our best estimate for the modern satellite era. In contrast, for the last roughly 20 years (2002–2020) both the ERA5 reanalysis (2.5% per year) and the GADS archive (1.2% to 1.4% per year) show a statistically significant rise in the wind speed in the North Atlantic jet streak exit region. These results must be considered in the context of atmospheric oscillations, changes to the North Atlantic Track System (NATS), and the effects of aircraft step climbs. We estimate that up to 0.5% of the rise may be due to improvements in the NATS operations and an unknown additional amount may be due to the substantial increase in automated aircraft observations starting in 1997. We also examine the impact of aircraft observations on one's confidence in drawing conclusions from secular changes in the reanalyses. For turbulence, the Light turbulence trends are not statistically significant. Our confidence in the turbulence results is more limited since these observations reflect medium‐term changes in tactical and strategic aircraft operational procedures as well as the underlying prevalence of turbulence. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Wiley Online Library Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 148 747 2927 2941 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Multiple studies have considered whether increased anthropogenic CO 2 will affect the wind speeds and turbulence associated with the winter North Atlantic polar‐front jet stream in the upper atmosphere. Key questions are whether any effects can already be seen and, if so, can they be seen independent of computer models of the atmosphere. In this study we use two reanalyses, NCEP/NCAR and the ECMWF ERA5, and two large observational archives, AMDAR/ACARS and the Global Aircraft Data Set (GADS), to try to answer these questions for the period 2002–2020 when automated aircraft observations were plentiful over the North Atlantic. We focus on eastbound, New York to London, flights. No significant increase appears in reanalyses during the last roughly 40 years (1979–2020) which is our best estimate for the modern satellite era. In contrast, for the last roughly 20 years (2002–2020) both the ERA5 reanalysis (2.5% per year) and the GADS archive (1.2% to 1.4% per year) show a statistically significant rise in the wind speed in the North Atlantic jet streak exit region. These results must be considered in the context of atmospheric oscillations, changes to the North Atlantic Track System (NATS), and the effects of aircraft step climbs. We estimate that up to 0.5% of the rise may be due to improvements in the NATS operations and an unknown additional amount may be due to the substantial increase in automated aircraft observations starting in 1997. We also examine the impact of aircraft observations on one's confidence in drawing conclusions from secular changes in the reanalyses. For turbulence, the Light turbulence trends are not statistically significant. Our confidence in the turbulence results is more limited since these observations reflect medium‐term changes in tactical and strategic aircraft operational procedures as well as the underlying prevalence of turbulence. |
author2 |
Goddard Space Flight Center State University of New York National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka Met Office |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tenenbaum, Joel Williams, Paul D. Turp, Debi Buchanan, Piers Coulson, Robert Gill, Philip G. Lunnon, Robert W. Oztunali, Marguerite G. Rankin, John Rukhovets, Leonid |
spellingShingle |
Tenenbaum, Joel Williams, Paul D. Turp, Debi Buchanan, Piers Coulson, Robert Gill, Philip G. Lunnon, Robert W. Oztunali, Marguerite G. Rankin, John Rukhovets, Leonid Aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the North Atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence |
author_facet |
Tenenbaum, Joel Williams, Paul D. Turp, Debi Buchanan, Piers Coulson, Robert Gill, Philip G. Lunnon, Robert W. Oztunali, Marguerite G. Rankin, John Rukhovets, Leonid |
author_sort |
Tenenbaum, Joel |
title |
Aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the North Atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence |
title_short |
Aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the North Atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence |
title_full |
Aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the North Atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence |
title_fullStr |
Aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the North Atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence |
title_full_unstemmed |
Aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the North Atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence |
title_sort |
aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the north atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4342 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4342 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.4342 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4342 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 148, issue 747, page 2927-2941 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4342 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
148 |
container_issue |
747 |
container_start_page |
2927 |
op_container_end_page |
2941 |
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1810459896480530432 |