Assessing observation network design predictions for monitoring Antarctic surface temperature
Abstract Networks of observations ideally provide adequate sampling of parameters to be monitored for climate and weather forecasting applications. This is a challenge for any network, but is particularly difficult in the harsh environment of the Antarctic continent. We evaluate a network design met...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.4226 2024-06-02T07:57:34+00:00 Assessing observation network design predictions for monitoring Antarctic surface temperature Tardif, Robert Hakim, Gregory J. Bumbaco, Karin A. Lazzara, Matthew A. Manning, Kevin W. Mikolajczyk, David E. Powers, Jordan G. National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4226 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4226 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.4226 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4226 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 148, issue 743, page 727-746 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2022 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4226 2024-05-03T10:50:31Z Abstract Networks of observations ideally provide adequate sampling of parameters to be monitored for climate and weather forecasting applications. This is a challenge for any network, but is particularly difficult in the harsh environment of the Antarctic continent. We evaluate a network design method providing objective information on station siting for optimal sampling of a variable, here taken to be surface air temperature. The method uses the concept of ensemble sensitivity to predict locations reducing the most total ensemble variance, that is, uncertainty, across the continent. The method is applied to a network of frequently‐reporting stations, and validation is performed using results from assimilating station observations. A cost‐efficient “offline” data assimilation framework is used to allow testing over a large sample of experiments, including a large number of randomly chosen networks that serve as a null hypothesis. Network design predictions agree well with observed error reductions from assimilation. The important role of stations on the East Antarctic Plateau in monitoring surface air temperature is evident in network design and data assimilation results, followed by stations in West Antarctica and the Ross Ice Shelf region. Antarctic coastal and Peninsula stations are found to provide the smallest information content integrated over the continent. Validation results are also robust to covariance localization, an essential factor for ensemble methods. Optimal networks outperform randomly chosen‐networks in all cases, by up to nearly 50%, depending on the size of the network and the covariance localization distance. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Shelf Ross Ice Shelf West Antarctica Wiley Online Library Antarctic Ross Ice Shelf The Antarctic West Antarctica Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
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English |
description |
Abstract Networks of observations ideally provide adequate sampling of parameters to be monitored for climate and weather forecasting applications. This is a challenge for any network, but is particularly difficult in the harsh environment of the Antarctic continent. We evaluate a network design method providing objective information on station siting for optimal sampling of a variable, here taken to be surface air temperature. The method uses the concept of ensemble sensitivity to predict locations reducing the most total ensemble variance, that is, uncertainty, across the continent. The method is applied to a network of frequently‐reporting stations, and validation is performed using results from assimilating station observations. A cost‐efficient “offline” data assimilation framework is used to allow testing over a large sample of experiments, including a large number of randomly chosen networks that serve as a null hypothesis. Network design predictions agree well with observed error reductions from assimilation. The important role of stations on the East Antarctic Plateau in monitoring surface air temperature is evident in network design and data assimilation results, followed by stations in West Antarctica and the Ross Ice Shelf region. Antarctic coastal and Peninsula stations are found to provide the smallest information content integrated over the continent. Validation results are also robust to covariance localization, an essential factor for ensemble methods. Optimal networks outperform randomly chosen‐networks in all cases, by up to nearly 50%, depending on the size of the network and the covariance localization distance. |
author2 |
National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tardif, Robert Hakim, Gregory J. Bumbaco, Karin A. Lazzara, Matthew A. Manning, Kevin W. Mikolajczyk, David E. Powers, Jordan G. |
spellingShingle |
Tardif, Robert Hakim, Gregory J. Bumbaco, Karin A. Lazzara, Matthew A. Manning, Kevin W. Mikolajczyk, David E. Powers, Jordan G. Assessing observation network design predictions for monitoring Antarctic surface temperature |
author_facet |
Tardif, Robert Hakim, Gregory J. Bumbaco, Karin A. Lazzara, Matthew A. Manning, Kevin W. Mikolajczyk, David E. Powers, Jordan G. |
author_sort |
Tardif, Robert |
title |
Assessing observation network design predictions for monitoring Antarctic surface temperature |
title_short |
Assessing observation network design predictions for monitoring Antarctic surface temperature |
title_full |
Assessing observation network design predictions for monitoring Antarctic surface temperature |
title_fullStr |
Assessing observation network design predictions for monitoring Antarctic surface temperature |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing observation network design predictions for monitoring Antarctic surface temperature |
title_sort |
assessing observation network design predictions for monitoring antarctic surface temperature |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4226 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4226 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.4226 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4226 |
geographic |
Antarctic Ross Ice Shelf The Antarctic West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Ross Ice Shelf The Antarctic West Antarctica |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Shelf Ross Ice Shelf West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Shelf Ross Ice Shelf West Antarctica |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 148, issue 743, page 727-746 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4226 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
_version_ |
1800740732782247936 |