Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models
Abstract The Quasi‐biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provide...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.4048 2024-09-15T18:23:34+00:00 Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models Anstey, James A. Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Serva, Federico Gray, Lesley J. Butchart, Neal Hamilton, Kevin Osprey, Scott Bellprat, Omar Braesicke, Peter Bushell, Andrew C. Cagnazzo, Chiara Chen, Chih‐Chieh Chun, Hye‐Yeong Garcia, Rolando R. Holt, Laura Kawatani, Yoshio Kerzenmacher, Tobias Kim, Young‐Ha Lott, Francois McLandress, Charles Scinocca, John Stockdale, Timothy N. Versick, Stefan Watanabe, Shingo Yoshida, Kohei Yukimoto, Seiji 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4048 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.4048 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4048 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 148, issue 744, page 1568-1592 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 2024-09-05T05:04:56Z Abstract The Quasi‐biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere‐troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific‐sector subtropical jet. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 148 744 1568 1592 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The Quasi‐biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere‐troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific‐sector subtropical jet. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anstey, James A. Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Serva, Federico Gray, Lesley J. Butchart, Neal Hamilton, Kevin Osprey, Scott Bellprat, Omar Braesicke, Peter Bushell, Andrew C. Cagnazzo, Chiara Chen, Chih‐Chieh Chun, Hye‐Yeong Garcia, Rolando R. Holt, Laura Kawatani, Yoshio Kerzenmacher, Tobias Kim, Young‐Ha Lott, Francois McLandress, Charles Scinocca, John Stockdale, Timothy N. Versick, Stefan Watanabe, Shingo Yoshida, Kohei Yukimoto, Seiji |
spellingShingle |
Anstey, James A. Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Serva, Federico Gray, Lesley J. Butchart, Neal Hamilton, Kevin Osprey, Scott Bellprat, Omar Braesicke, Peter Bushell, Andrew C. Cagnazzo, Chiara Chen, Chih‐Chieh Chun, Hye‐Yeong Garcia, Rolando R. Holt, Laura Kawatani, Yoshio Kerzenmacher, Tobias Kim, Young‐Ha Lott, Francois McLandress, Charles Scinocca, John Stockdale, Timothy N. Versick, Stefan Watanabe, Shingo Yoshida, Kohei Yukimoto, Seiji Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
author_facet |
Anstey, James A. Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Naoe, Hiroaki Taguchi, Masakazu Serva, Federico Gray, Lesley J. Butchart, Neal Hamilton, Kevin Osprey, Scott Bellprat, Omar Braesicke, Peter Bushell, Andrew C. Cagnazzo, Chiara Chen, Chih‐Chieh Chun, Hye‐Yeong Garcia, Rolando R. Holt, Laura Kawatani, Yoshio Kerzenmacher, Tobias Kim, Young‐Ha Lott, Francois McLandress, Charles Scinocca, John Stockdale, Timothy N. Versick, Stefan Watanabe, Shingo Yoshida, Kohei Yukimoto, Seiji |
author_sort |
Anstey, James A. |
title |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_short |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_full |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_fullStr |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_sort |
teleconnections of the quasi‐biennial oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of qbo‐resolving models |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4048 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.4048 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4048 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 148, issue 744, page 1568-1592 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
148 |
container_issue |
744 |
container_start_page |
1568 |
op_container_end_page |
1592 |
_version_ |
1810463795424788480 |