Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea
Abstract Marine cold‐air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (a) the ability of a seasonal predictio...
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.4038 2024-09-15T17:57:54+00:00 Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea Polkova*, Iuliia Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4038 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.4038 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4038 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 147, issue 738, page 2638-2656 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 2024-09-05T05:03:21Z Abstract Marine cold‐air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (a) the ability of a seasonal prediction system to predict MCAOs and (b) the possibilities to improve predictions through large‐scale causal drivers. Our results show that the seasonal ensemble predictions have high prediction skill for MCAOs over the Nordic Seas for about 20 days starting from November initial conditions. To study causal drivers of MCAOs, we utilize a causal effect network approach applied to the atmospheric reanalysis ERA‐Interim and identify local sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns over Scandinavia as valuable predictors. Prediction skill for MCAOs is further improved up to 40 days by including MCAO predictors in the analysis. Article in Journal/Newspaper Barents Sea Nordic Seas Wiley Online Library Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Marine cold‐air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (a) the ability of a seasonal prediction system to predict MCAOs and (b) the possibilities to improve predictions through large‐scale causal drivers. Our results show that the seasonal ensemble predictions have high prediction skill for MCAOs over the Nordic Seas for about 20 days starting from November initial conditions. To study causal drivers of MCAOs, we utilize a causal effect network approach applied to the atmospheric reanalysis ERA‐Interim and identify local sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns over Scandinavia as valuable predictors. Prediction skill for MCAOs is further improved up to 40 days by including MCAO predictors in the analysis. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Polkova*, Iuliia Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna |
spellingShingle |
Polkova*, Iuliia Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
author_facet |
Polkova*, Iuliia Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna |
author_sort |
Polkova*, Iuliia |
title |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_short |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_full |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_fullStr |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_sort |
predictors and prediction skill for marine cold‐air outbreaks over the barents sea |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4038 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.4038 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4038 |
genre |
Barents Sea Nordic Seas |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea Nordic Seas |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 147, issue 738, page 2638-2656 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
_version_ |
1810434123925291008 |