Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post‐processing of MOGREPS‐G wind speed forecasts
Abstract Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) heavily influence the weather across the UK and the rest of Europe. Due to an incorrect representation of the polar jet stream and its associated physical processes, it is reasonable to believe that errors in numerical weather prediction model...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.3983 2024-09-15T18:22:24+00:00 Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post‐processing of MOGREPS‐G wind speed forecasts Allen, Sam Evans, Gavin R. Buchanan, Piers Kwasniok, Frank Natural Environment Research Council 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3983 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3983 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.3983 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3983 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 147, issue 735, page 1403-1418 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3983 2024-07-18T04:27:20Z Abstract Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) heavily influence the weather across the UK and the rest of Europe. Due to an incorrect representation of the polar jet stream and its associated physical processes, it is reasonable to believe that errors in numerical weather prediction models may also depend on the prevailing behaviour of the NAO. To address this, information regarding the NAO is incorporated into statistical post‐processing methods through a regime‐dependent mixture model, which is then applied to wind speed forecasts from the Met Office's global ensemble prediction system, MOGREPS‐G. The mixture model offers substantial improvements upon conventional post‐processing methods when the local wind speed depends strongly on the NAO, but the additional complexity of the model can hinder forecast performance otherwise. A measure of regime dependency is thus defined that can be used to differentiate between situations when the numerical model output is, and is not, expected to benefit from regime‐dependent post‐processing. Implementing the regime‐dependent mixture model only when this measure exceeds a certain threshold is found to further improve predictive performance, while also producing more accurate forecasts of extreme wind speeds. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 147 735 1403 1418 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
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English |
description |
Abstract Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) heavily influence the weather across the UK and the rest of Europe. Due to an incorrect representation of the polar jet stream and its associated physical processes, it is reasonable to believe that errors in numerical weather prediction models may also depend on the prevailing behaviour of the NAO. To address this, information regarding the NAO is incorporated into statistical post‐processing methods through a regime‐dependent mixture model, which is then applied to wind speed forecasts from the Met Office's global ensemble prediction system, MOGREPS‐G. The mixture model offers substantial improvements upon conventional post‐processing methods when the local wind speed depends strongly on the NAO, but the additional complexity of the model can hinder forecast performance otherwise. A measure of regime dependency is thus defined that can be used to differentiate between situations when the numerical model output is, and is not, expected to benefit from regime‐dependent post‐processing. Implementing the regime‐dependent mixture model only when this measure exceeds a certain threshold is found to further improve predictive performance, while also producing more accurate forecasts of extreme wind speeds. |
author2 |
Natural Environment Research Council |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Allen, Sam Evans, Gavin R. Buchanan, Piers Kwasniok, Frank |
spellingShingle |
Allen, Sam Evans, Gavin R. Buchanan, Piers Kwasniok, Frank Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post‐processing of MOGREPS‐G wind speed forecasts |
author_facet |
Allen, Sam Evans, Gavin R. Buchanan, Piers Kwasniok, Frank |
author_sort |
Allen, Sam |
title |
Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post‐processing of MOGREPS‐G wind speed forecasts |
title_short |
Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post‐processing of MOGREPS‐G wind speed forecasts |
title_full |
Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post‐processing of MOGREPS‐G wind speed forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post‐processing of MOGREPS‐G wind speed forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post‐processing of MOGREPS‐G wind speed forecasts |
title_sort |
incorporating the north atlantic oscillation into the post‐processing of mogreps‐g wind speed forecasts |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3983 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3983 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.3983 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3983 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 147, issue 735, page 1403-1418 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3983 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
147 |
container_issue |
735 |
container_start_page |
1403 |
op_container_end_page |
1418 |
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1810462185176956928 |