Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill
Abstract Recent studies have found evidence of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill. Here we assess the robustness of this finding by extending the analysis to a diverse set of ensemble atmospheric model simulations. These simulations differ in either th...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.3890 2024-09-15T18:22:55+00:00 Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill O'Reilly, Christopher H. Weisheimer, Antje MacLeod, David Befort, Daniel J. Palmer, Tim H2020 European Research Council Horizon 2020 Framework Programme National Centre for Atmospheric Science 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3890 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3890 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.3890 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3890 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 146, issue 733, page 4055-4066 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2020 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3890 2024-08-30T04:10:59Z Abstract Recent studies have found evidence of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill. Here we assess the robustness of this finding by extending the analysis to a diverse set of ensemble atmospheric model simulations. These simulations differ in either the numerical model or type of initialisation and include atmospheric model experiments initialised with reanalysis data and free‐running atmospheric model ensembles. All ensembles are forced with observed sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea‐ice boundary conditions. Analysis of large‐scale Northern Hemisphere circulation indices over the Northern Hemisphere (namely the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific/North American pattern and the Arctic Oscillation) reveals that in all ensembles there is larger correlation skill in late‐century periods than in mid‐century periods. Similar multidecadal variability in skill is found in a measure of total skill integrated over the whole extratropical region. Most of the differences in large‐scale circulation skill between the skilful late period (as well as the early period) and the less skilful mid‐century period seem to be due to a reduction in skill over the North Pacific and a disappearance of skill over North America and the North Atlantic. The results are robust across different models and different types of initialisation, indicating that the multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere winter skill is a robust feature of twentieth‐century climate variability. Multidecadal variability in skill therefore arises from the evolution of the observed SSTs, likely related to a weakened influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the predictable extratropical circulation signal during the middle of the twentieth century, and is evident in the signal‐to‐noise ratio of the different ensembles, particularly the larger ensembles. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Wiley Online Library Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 146 733 4055 4066 |
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English |
description |
Abstract Recent studies have found evidence of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill. Here we assess the robustness of this finding by extending the analysis to a diverse set of ensemble atmospheric model simulations. These simulations differ in either the numerical model or type of initialisation and include atmospheric model experiments initialised with reanalysis data and free‐running atmospheric model ensembles. All ensembles are forced with observed sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea‐ice boundary conditions. Analysis of large‐scale Northern Hemisphere circulation indices over the Northern Hemisphere (namely the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific/North American pattern and the Arctic Oscillation) reveals that in all ensembles there is larger correlation skill in late‐century periods than in mid‐century periods. Similar multidecadal variability in skill is found in a measure of total skill integrated over the whole extratropical region. Most of the differences in large‐scale circulation skill between the skilful late period (as well as the early period) and the less skilful mid‐century period seem to be due to a reduction in skill over the North Pacific and a disappearance of skill over North America and the North Atlantic. The results are robust across different models and different types of initialisation, indicating that the multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere winter skill is a robust feature of twentieth‐century climate variability. Multidecadal variability in skill therefore arises from the evolution of the observed SSTs, likely related to a weakened influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the predictable extratropical circulation signal during the middle of the twentieth century, and is evident in the signal‐to‐noise ratio of the different ensembles, particularly the larger ensembles. |
author2 |
H2020 European Research Council Horizon 2020 Framework Programme National Centre for Atmospheric Science |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
O'Reilly, Christopher H. Weisheimer, Antje MacLeod, David Befort, Daniel J. Palmer, Tim |
spellingShingle |
O'Reilly, Christopher H. Weisheimer, Antje MacLeod, David Befort, Daniel J. Palmer, Tim Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill |
author_facet |
O'Reilly, Christopher H. Weisheimer, Antje MacLeod, David Befort, Daniel J. Palmer, Tim |
author_sort |
O'Reilly, Christopher H. |
title |
Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill |
title_short |
Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill |
title_full |
Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill |
title_fullStr |
Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill |
title_sort |
assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in northern hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3890 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3890 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.3890 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3890 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 146, issue 733, page 4055-4066 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3890 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
146 |
container_issue |
733 |
container_start_page |
4055 |
op_container_end_page |
4066 |
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1810462971278655488 |