On the role of Ural Blocking in driving the Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia pattern
Abstract We use reanalysis data to substantiate the role of Ural blocking (UB) in driving the Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia (WACS) pattern, which represents an anti‐correlation of surface temperature between the Barents–Kara Seas and central Asia. We confirm a robust link between UB and the WACS pattern...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3784 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.3784 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3784 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.3784 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3784 |
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.3784 2024-10-13T14:04:53+00:00 On the role of Ural Blocking in driving the Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia pattern Tyrlis, Evangelos Bader, Jürgen Manzini, Elisa Ukita, Jinro Nakamura, Hisashi Matei, Daniela 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3784 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.3784 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3784 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.3784 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3784 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 146, issue 730, page 2138-2153 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2020 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3784 2024-09-17T04:47:18Z Abstract We use reanalysis data to substantiate the role of Ural blocking (UB) in driving the Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia (WACS) pattern, which represents an anti‐correlation of surface temperature between the Barents–Kara Seas and central Asia. We confirm a robust link between UB and the WACS pattern on daily to subseasonal time‐scales. UB controls the pace of the WACS pattern; warming over the Barents–Kara Seas and cooling over central Asia peak 3–5 days after the UB onset. The observed sea ice deficit over the Barents–Kara Seas in the weeks prior to UB onset is not statistically significant when the long‐term trend in sea ice is removed. Thus, the sea ice deficit may not have a direct impact on UB occurrence but it develops as a delayed response to UB. The interannual variability of the WACS pattern is also strongly linked to UB. We identify an upward trend in wintertime UB in recent decades that accounts for a cooling rate of 1°C/decade over central Asia. Over the Barents–Kara Seas, UB trends explain a small fraction of the warming, which is dominated by Arctic amplification. Finally, the link between UB and the WACS pattern is statistically robust over the ERA‐Interim period but weaker during the 1990s when the lowest UB activity was observed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Siberia Wiley Online Library Arctic Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 146 730 2138 2153 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract We use reanalysis data to substantiate the role of Ural blocking (UB) in driving the Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia (WACS) pattern, which represents an anti‐correlation of surface temperature between the Barents–Kara Seas and central Asia. We confirm a robust link between UB and the WACS pattern on daily to subseasonal time‐scales. UB controls the pace of the WACS pattern; warming over the Barents–Kara Seas and cooling over central Asia peak 3–5 days after the UB onset. The observed sea ice deficit over the Barents–Kara Seas in the weeks prior to UB onset is not statistically significant when the long‐term trend in sea ice is removed. Thus, the sea ice deficit may not have a direct impact on UB occurrence but it develops as a delayed response to UB. The interannual variability of the WACS pattern is also strongly linked to UB. We identify an upward trend in wintertime UB in recent decades that accounts for a cooling rate of 1°C/decade over central Asia. Over the Barents–Kara Seas, UB trends explain a small fraction of the warming, which is dominated by Arctic amplification. Finally, the link between UB and the WACS pattern is statistically robust over the ERA‐Interim period but weaker during the 1990s when the lowest UB activity was observed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tyrlis, Evangelos Bader, Jürgen Manzini, Elisa Ukita, Jinro Nakamura, Hisashi Matei, Daniela |
spellingShingle |
Tyrlis, Evangelos Bader, Jürgen Manzini, Elisa Ukita, Jinro Nakamura, Hisashi Matei, Daniela On the role of Ural Blocking in driving the Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia pattern |
author_facet |
Tyrlis, Evangelos Bader, Jürgen Manzini, Elisa Ukita, Jinro Nakamura, Hisashi Matei, Daniela |
author_sort |
Tyrlis, Evangelos |
title |
On the role of Ural Blocking in driving the Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia pattern |
title_short |
On the role of Ural Blocking in driving the Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia pattern |
title_full |
On the role of Ural Blocking in driving the Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia pattern |
title_fullStr |
On the role of Ural Blocking in driving the Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia pattern |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the role of Ural Blocking in driving the Warm Arctic–Cold Siberia pattern |
title_sort |
on the role of ural blocking in driving the warm arctic–cold siberia pattern |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3784 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.3784 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3784 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.3784 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3784 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice Siberia |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 146, issue 730, page 2138-2153 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3784 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
146 |
container_issue |
730 |
container_start_page |
2138 |
op_container_end_page |
2153 |
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1812810665912434688 |