Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes
Abstract Recent studies have suggested that Arctic teleconnections affect the weather of the midlatitudes on time‐scales relevant for medium‐range weather forecasting. In this study, we use several numerical experimentation approaches with a state‐of‐the‐art global operational numerical weather pred...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3673 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3673 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.3673 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3673 |
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.3673 2024-09-30T14:28:45+00:00 Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes Day, Jonathan J. Sandu, Irina Magnusson, Linus Rodwell, Mark J. Lawrence, Heather Bormann, Niels Jung, Thomas H2020 European Research Council 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3673 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3673 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.3673 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3673 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 145, issue 725, page 3846-3862 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3673 2024-09-05T05:08:24Z Abstract Recent studies have suggested that Arctic teleconnections affect the weather of the midlatitudes on time‐scales relevant for medium‐range weather forecasting. In this study, we use several numerical experimentation approaches with a state‐of‐the‐art global operational numerical weather prediction system to investigate this idea further. Focusing on boreal winter, we investigate whether the influence of the Arctic on midlatitude weather, and the impact of the current Arctic observing system on the skill of medium‐range weather forecasts in the midlatitudes is more pronounced in certain flow regimes. Using so‐called Observing System Experiments, we demonstrate that removing in situ or satellite observations from the data assimilation system, used to create the initial conditions for the forecasts, deteriorates midlatitude synoptic forecast skill in the medium‐range, particularly over northern Asia. This deterioration is largest during Scandinavian Blocking episodes, during which: (a) error growth is enhanced in the European‐Arctic, as a result of increased baroclinicity in the region, and (b) high‐amplitude planetary waves allow errors to propagate from the Arctic into midlatitudes. The important role played by Scandinavian Blocking, in modulating the influence of the Arctic on midlatitudes, is also corroborated in relaxation experiments, and through a diagnostic analysis of the ERA5 reanalysis and reforecasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Wiley Online Library Arctic Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 145 725 3846 3862 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Recent studies have suggested that Arctic teleconnections affect the weather of the midlatitudes on time‐scales relevant for medium‐range weather forecasting. In this study, we use several numerical experimentation approaches with a state‐of‐the‐art global operational numerical weather prediction system to investigate this idea further. Focusing on boreal winter, we investigate whether the influence of the Arctic on midlatitude weather, and the impact of the current Arctic observing system on the skill of medium‐range weather forecasts in the midlatitudes is more pronounced in certain flow regimes. Using so‐called Observing System Experiments, we demonstrate that removing in situ or satellite observations from the data assimilation system, used to create the initial conditions for the forecasts, deteriorates midlatitude synoptic forecast skill in the medium‐range, particularly over northern Asia. This deterioration is largest during Scandinavian Blocking episodes, during which: (a) error growth is enhanced in the European‐Arctic, as a result of increased baroclinicity in the region, and (b) high‐amplitude planetary waves allow errors to propagate from the Arctic into midlatitudes. The important role played by Scandinavian Blocking, in modulating the influence of the Arctic on midlatitudes, is also corroborated in relaxation experiments, and through a diagnostic analysis of the ERA5 reanalysis and reforecasts. |
author2 |
H2020 European Research Council |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Day, Jonathan J. Sandu, Irina Magnusson, Linus Rodwell, Mark J. Lawrence, Heather Bormann, Niels Jung, Thomas |
spellingShingle |
Day, Jonathan J. Sandu, Irina Magnusson, Linus Rodwell, Mark J. Lawrence, Heather Bormann, Niels Jung, Thomas Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes |
author_facet |
Day, Jonathan J. Sandu, Irina Magnusson, Linus Rodwell, Mark J. Lawrence, Heather Bormann, Niels Jung, Thomas |
author_sort |
Day, Jonathan J. |
title |
Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes |
title_short |
Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes |
title_full |
Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes |
title_fullStr |
Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Increased Arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during Scandinavian Blocking episodes |
title_sort |
increased arctic influence on the midlatitude flow during scandinavian blocking episodes |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3673 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3673 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.3673 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3673 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 145, issue 725, page 3846-3862 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3673 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
145 |
container_issue |
725 |
container_start_page |
3846 |
op_container_end_page |
3862 |
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1811634263228940288 |