Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe?
Wind power is playing an increasingly important role in Europe's electricity generation. Accurate forecasts of wind‐power output on various spatial and temporal scales are therefore of high interest for the energy industry. However, predictability of near‐surface wind on subseasonal time‐scales...
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.3158 2024-09-09T19:57:42+00:00 Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe? Beerli, Remo Wernli, Heini Grams, Christian M. Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3158 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.3158 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3158 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 143, issue 709, page 3025-3036 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2017 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3158 2024-08-06T04:14:55Z Wind power is playing an increasingly important role in Europe's electricity generation. Accurate forecasts of wind‐power output on various spatial and temporal scales are therefore of high interest for the energy industry. However, predictability of near‐surface wind on subseasonal time‐scales has received relatively little attention. The stratosphere is an important source of subseasonal predictability in winter. Here, we study the implications of the lower stratospheric circulation for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe in winter. Using ERA‐Interim reanalysis and the novel wind‐power dataset Renewables.ninja, we demonstrate a strong relationship between the lower stratospheric circulation and month‐ahead wind electricity generation in different parts of Europe in the period 1985–2014. This relationship exists due to episodes of troposphere–stratosphere coupling, which lead to prolonged periods of either the positive or negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since these persistent NAO periods are associated with strong surface wind anomalies, they have an important impact on wind electricity generation, in particular in Northern Europe. The state of the lower stratospheric circulation also determines the exact latitudinal position of these prolonged NAO patterns, with contrasting implications for wind electricity generation in specific countries. Using simple statistical forecasts, we show that the observed relationship between the lower stratosphere and wind electricity generation can be used for skilful forecasts of month‐ahead wind electricity generation. Particularly high forecast skill is found when the circulation in the lower stratosphere differs strongly from its climatological mean. Anomalous states of the lower stratospheric circulation therefore provide windows of subseasonal‐range predictability for wind‐power output in many European countries. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143 709 3025 3036 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
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English |
description |
Wind power is playing an increasingly important role in Europe's electricity generation. Accurate forecasts of wind‐power output on various spatial and temporal scales are therefore of high interest for the energy industry. However, predictability of near‐surface wind on subseasonal time‐scales has received relatively little attention. The stratosphere is an important source of subseasonal predictability in winter. Here, we study the implications of the lower stratospheric circulation for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe in winter. Using ERA‐Interim reanalysis and the novel wind‐power dataset Renewables.ninja, we demonstrate a strong relationship between the lower stratospheric circulation and month‐ahead wind electricity generation in different parts of Europe in the period 1985–2014. This relationship exists due to episodes of troposphere–stratosphere coupling, which lead to prolonged periods of either the positive or negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since these persistent NAO periods are associated with strong surface wind anomalies, they have an important impact on wind electricity generation, in particular in Northern Europe. The state of the lower stratospheric circulation also determines the exact latitudinal position of these prolonged NAO patterns, with contrasting implications for wind electricity generation in specific countries. Using simple statistical forecasts, we show that the observed relationship between the lower stratosphere and wind electricity generation can be used for skilful forecasts of month‐ahead wind electricity generation. Particularly high forecast skill is found when the circulation in the lower stratosphere differs strongly from its climatological mean. Anomalous states of the lower stratospheric circulation therefore provide windows of subseasonal‐range predictability for wind‐power output in many European countries. |
author2 |
Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Beerli, Remo Wernli, Heini Grams, Christian M. |
spellingShingle |
Beerli, Remo Wernli, Heini Grams, Christian M. Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe? |
author_facet |
Beerli, Remo Wernli, Heini Grams, Christian M. |
author_sort |
Beerli, Remo |
title |
Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe? |
title_short |
Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe? |
title_full |
Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe? |
title_fullStr |
Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe? |
title_sort |
does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in europe? |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3158 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.3158 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.3158 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 143, issue 709, page 3025-3036 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3158 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
143 |
container_issue |
709 |
container_start_page |
3025 |
op_container_end_page |
3036 |
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1809928639101272064 |