New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones
In this study, the relationship between the frequency and intensity of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic is investigated. A cyclone track database of extended October–March winters was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Re...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2649 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.2649 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2649 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.2649 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2649 |
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.2649 2024-06-23T07:54:55+00:00 New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones Hunter, Alasdair Stephenson, David B. Economou, Theo Holland, Mark Cook, Ian Natural Environment Research Council Willis Re. 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2649 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.2649 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2649 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.2649 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2649 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 142, issue 694, page 243-256 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2015 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2649 2024-06-13T04:21:07Z In this study, the relationship between the frequency and intensity of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic is investigated. A cyclone track database of extended October–March winters was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis. A large positive correlation is found between winter cyclone counts and local sample mean vorticity over the exit region of the North Atlantic storm track in this cyclone track database. Conversely, a negative correlation is found over the Gulf Stream. Possible causes for the dependence are investigated by regressing winter cyclone counts and local sample mean vorticity on teleconnection indices with Poisson and linear models. The indices for the Scandinavian pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern are able to account for most of the observed positive correlation over the North Atlantic. To consider the implications of frequency intensity dependence for the insurance industry, an aggregate risk metric was used as a proxy for the annual aggregate insured loss. Here, the aggregate risk is defined as the sum of the intensities of all events occurring within a season. Assuming independence between the frequency and intensity results in large biases in the variance and the extremes of the aggregate risk, especially over Scandinavia. Therefore including frequency intensity dependence in extratropical cyclone loss models is necessary to model the risk of extreme losses. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142 694 243 256 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
In this study, the relationship between the frequency and intensity of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic is investigated. A cyclone track database of extended October–March winters was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis. A large positive correlation is found between winter cyclone counts and local sample mean vorticity over the exit region of the North Atlantic storm track in this cyclone track database. Conversely, a negative correlation is found over the Gulf Stream. Possible causes for the dependence are investigated by regressing winter cyclone counts and local sample mean vorticity on teleconnection indices with Poisson and linear models. The indices for the Scandinavian pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern are able to account for most of the observed positive correlation over the North Atlantic. To consider the implications of frequency intensity dependence for the insurance industry, an aggregate risk metric was used as a proxy for the annual aggregate insured loss. Here, the aggregate risk is defined as the sum of the intensities of all events occurring within a season. Assuming independence between the frequency and intensity results in large biases in the variance and the extremes of the aggregate risk, especially over Scandinavia. Therefore including frequency intensity dependence in extratropical cyclone loss models is necessary to model the risk of extreme losses. |
author2 |
Natural Environment Research Council Willis Re. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hunter, Alasdair Stephenson, David B. Economou, Theo Holland, Mark Cook, Ian |
spellingShingle |
Hunter, Alasdair Stephenson, David B. Economou, Theo Holland, Mark Cook, Ian New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones |
author_facet |
Hunter, Alasdair Stephenson, David B. Economou, Theo Holland, Mark Cook, Ian |
author_sort |
Hunter, Alasdair |
title |
New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones |
title_short |
New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones |
title_full |
New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones |
title_fullStr |
New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones |
title_full_unstemmed |
New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones |
title_sort |
new perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2649 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.2649 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2649 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.2649 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2649 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 142, issue 694, page 243-256 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2649 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
142 |
container_issue |
694 |
container_start_page |
243 |
op_container_end_page |
256 |
_version_ |
1802647266810396672 |