Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects
European and North American winter weather is dominated by year‐to‐year variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which controls the direction and speed of the prevailing winds. An ability to forecast the time‐averaged NAO months to years ahead would be of great societal benefit, but curren...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.2479 2024-09-15T18:21:32+00:00 Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects Smith, Doug M. Scaife, Adam A. Eade, Rosie Knight, Jeff R. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs European Commission Department of energy and climate change 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2479 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.2479 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2479 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.2479 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2479 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 142, issue 695, page 611-617 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2014 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2479 2024-08-13T04:14:28Z European and North American winter weather is dominated by year‐to‐year variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which controls the direction and speed of the prevailing winds. An ability to forecast the time‐averaged NAO months to years ahead would be of great societal benefit, but current operational seasonal forecasts show little skill. However, there are several elements of the climate system that potentially influence the NAO and may therefore provide predictability for the NAO. We review these potential sources of skill, present emerging evidence that the NAO may be usefully predictable (with correlations exceeding 0.6) on seasonal time‐scales, and discuss prospects for improving skill and extending predictions to multi‐year time‐scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142 695 611 617 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
European and North American winter weather is dominated by year‐to‐year variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which controls the direction and speed of the prevailing winds. An ability to forecast the time‐averaged NAO months to years ahead would be of great societal benefit, but current operational seasonal forecasts show little skill. However, there are several elements of the climate system that potentially influence the NAO and may therefore provide predictability for the NAO. We review these potential sources of skill, present emerging evidence that the NAO may be usefully predictable (with correlations exceeding 0.6) on seasonal time‐scales, and discuss prospects for improving skill and extending predictions to multi‐year time‐scales. |
author2 |
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs European Commission Department of energy and climate change |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Smith, Doug M. Scaife, Adam A. Eade, Rosie Knight, Jeff R. |
spellingShingle |
Smith, Doug M. Scaife, Adam A. Eade, Rosie Knight, Jeff R. Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects |
author_facet |
Smith, Doug M. Scaife, Adam A. Eade, Rosie Knight, Jeff R. |
author_sort |
Smith, Doug M. |
title |
Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects |
title_short |
Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects |
title_full |
Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects |
title_sort |
seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter north atlantic oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2479 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.2479 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2479 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.2479 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2479 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 142, issue 695, page 611-617 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2479 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
142 |
container_issue |
695 |
container_start_page |
611 |
op_container_end_page |
617 |
_version_ |
1810460133057101824 |