Verification of global numerical weather forecasting systems in polar regions using TIGGE data
High‐latitude climate change is expected to increase the demand for reliable weather and environmental forecasts in polar regions. In this study, a quantitative assessment of the skill of state‐of‐the‐art global weather prediction systems in polar regions is given using data from the THORPEX Interac...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.2437 2024-06-23T07:47:51+00:00 Verification of global numerical weather forecasting systems in polar regions using TIGGE data Jung, Thomas Matsueda, Mio 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2437 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.2437 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2437 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.2437 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2437 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 142, issue 695, page 574-582 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2014 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2437 2024-05-31T08:13:39Z High‐latitude climate change is expected to increase the demand for reliable weather and environmental forecasts in polar regions. In this study, a quantitative assessment of the skill of state‐of‐the‐art global weather prediction systems in polar regions is given using data from the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) for the period 2006/2007–2012/2013. Forecast skill in the Arctic is comparable to that found in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. However, relative differences in the quality between different forecasting systems appear to be amplified in the Arctic. Furthermore, analysis uncertainty in the Arctic is more of an issue than it is in the midlatitudes, especially when it comes to near‐surface parameters over snow‐ and ice‐covered surfaces. Using NOAA's reforecast dataset, it is shown that the changes in forecast skill during the 7‐year period considered here can largely be explained by flow‐dependent error growth, especially for the more skilful forecasting systems. Finally, a direct comparison between the Arctic and Antarctic suggests that predictions of mid‐topospheric flow in the former region are more skilful. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Wiley Online Library Antarctic Arctic Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142 695 574 582 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
High‐latitude climate change is expected to increase the demand for reliable weather and environmental forecasts in polar regions. In this study, a quantitative assessment of the skill of state‐of‐the‐art global weather prediction systems in polar regions is given using data from the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) for the period 2006/2007–2012/2013. Forecast skill in the Arctic is comparable to that found in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. However, relative differences in the quality between different forecasting systems appear to be amplified in the Arctic. Furthermore, analysis uncertainty in the Arctic is more of an issue than it is in the midlatitudes, especially when it comes to near‐surface parameters over snow‐ and ice‐covered surfaces. Using NOAA's reforecast dataset, it is shown that the changes in forecast skill during the 7‐year period considered here can largely be explained by flow‐dependent error growth, especially for the more skilful forecasting systems. Finally, a direct comparison between the Arctic and Antarctic suggests that predictions of mid‐topospheric flow in the former region are more skilful. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jung, Thomas Matsueda, Mio |
spellingShingle |
Jung, Thomas Matsueda, Mio Verification of global numerical weather forecasting systems in polar regions using TIGGE data |
author_facet |
Jung, Thomas Matsueda, Mio |
author_sort |
Jung, Thomas |
title |
Verification of global numerical weather forecasting systems in polar regions using TIGGE data |
title_short |
Verification of global numerical weather forecasting systems in polar regions using TIGGE data |
title_full |
Verification of global numerical weather forecasting systems in polar regions using TIGGE data |
title_fullStr |
Verification of global numerical weather forecasting systems in polar regions using TIGGE data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Verification of global numerical weather forecasting systems in polar regions using TIGGE data |
title_sort |
verification of global numerical weather forecasting systems in polar regions using tigge data |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2437 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.2437 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2437 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/qj.2437 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2437 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 142, issue 695, page 574-582 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2437 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
142 |
container_issue |
695 |
container_start_page |
574 |
op_container_end_page |
582 |
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1802638045678141440 |