The dynamically driven long‐term trend in stratospheric ozone over northern middle latitudes
Abstract The cause of the observed mid‐latitude decline in ozone in a 20‐year integration of a stratospheric chemical transport model forced by European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts analyses for the years 1979 to 1998 is investigated. A very simple chemical scheme for ozone is used whic...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2002
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.200212858301 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.200212858301 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.200212858301 |
id |
crwiley:10.1002/qj.200212858301 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crwiley:10.1002/qj.200212858301 2024-06-23T07:55:10+00:00 The dynamically driven long‐term trend in stratospheric ozone over northern middle latitudes Hadjinicolaou, Panos Jrrar, Amna Pyle, John A. Bishop, Lane 2002 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.200212858301 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.200212858301 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.200212858301 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 128, issue 583, page 1393-1412 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2002 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.200212858301 2024-06-06T04:22:56Z Abstract The cause of the observed mid‐latitude decline in ozone in a 20‐year integration of a stratospheric chemical transport model forced by European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts analyses for the years 1979 to 1998 is investigated. A very simple chemical scheme for ozone is used which includes no interannual variation so that any modelled interannual variability, or trend, must arise from changes in the meteorology. The integration from 1979 to 1998 does show a downward trend in mid‐latitude ozone in which many of the observed features are reproduced, especially between the middle 1980s and the early 1990s. A detailed statistical trend analysis shows that the quantitative comparison between modelled and observed trend is very sensitive to the choice of period considered. However, there is good qualitative agreement in terms of the latitudinal variation of the trend. For the different periods considered, the dynamically driven model trend accounts for at least half of the observed northern mid‐latitude trend averaged over December to February. The vertical variation of the modelled and observed trends agree qualitatively. The modelled total ozone correlates well with the vertical winter EP‐flux at 100 hPa and the North Atlantic Oscillation index, suggesting that long‐term changes in stratospheric circulation are intimately connected to the observed mid‐latitude ozone trend. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 128 583 1393 1412 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The cause of the observed mid‐latitude decline in ozone in a 20‐year integration of a stratospheric chemical transport model forced by European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts analyses for the years 1979 to 1998 is investigated. A very simple chemical scheme for ozone is used which includes no interannual variation so that any modelled interannual variability, or trend, must arise from changes in the meteorology. The integration from 1979 to 1998 does show a downward trend in mid‐latitude ozone in which many of the observed features are reproduced, especially between the middle 1980s and the early 1990s. A detailed statistical trend analysis shows that the quantitative comparison between modelled and observed trend is very sensitive to the choice of period considered. However, there is good qualitative agreement in terms of the latitudinal variation of the trend. For the different periods considered, the dynamically driven model trend accounts for at least half of the observed northern mid‐latitude trend averaged over December to February. The vertical variation of the modelled and observed trends agree qualitatively. The modelled total ozone correlates well with the vertical winter EP‐flux at 100 hPa and the North Atlantic Oscillation index, suggesting that long‐term changes in stratospheric circulation are intimately connected to the observed mid‐latitude ozone trend. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hadjinicolaou, Panos Jrrar, Amna Pyle, John A. Bishop, Lane |
spellingShingle |
Hadjinicolaou, Panos Jrrar, Amna Pyle, John A. Bishop, Lane The dynamically driven long‐term trend in stratospheric ozone over northern middle latitudes |
author_facet |
Hadjinicolaou, Panos Jrrar, Amna Pyle, John A. Bishop, Lane |
author_sort |
Hadjinicolaou, Panos |
title |
The dynamically driven long‐term trend in stratospheric ozone over northern middle latitudes |
title_short |
The dynamically driven long‐term trend in stratospheric ozone over northern middle latitudes |
title_full |
The dynamically driven long‐term trend in stratospheric ozone over northern middle latitudes |
title_fullStr |
The dynamically driven long‐term trend in stratospheric ozone over northern middle latitudes |
title_full_unstemmed |
The dynamically driven long‐term trend in stratospheric ozone over northern middle latitudes |
title_sort |
dynamically driven long‐term trend in stratospheric ozone over northern middle latitudes |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2002 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.200212858301 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.200212858301 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.200212858301 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 128, issue 583, page 1393-1412 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.200212858301 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
128 |
container_issue |
583 |
container_start_page |
1393 |
op_container_end_page |
1412 |
_version_ |
1802647642176487424 |