Evaluation of NWP results for wintertime nocturnal boundary‐layer temperatures over Europe and Finland
Abstract Four operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were evaluated in winter conditions against (a) synoptic observations in Europe, (b) observations at a 48 m high micrometeorological mast in Sodankylä, northern Finland, and (c) observations at the Helsinki Testbed stations: (i) to...
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crwiley:10.1002/qj.1885 2024-06-23T07:55:32+00:00 Evaluation of NWP results for wintertime nocturnal boundary‐layer temperatures over Europe and Finland Atlaskin, Evgeny Vihma, Timo 2012 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.1885 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.1885 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.1885 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 138, issue 667, page 1440-1451 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X journal-article 2012 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1885 2024-06-13T04:22:50Z Abstract Four operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were evaluated in winter conditions against (a) synoptic observations in Europe, (b) observations at a 48 m high micrometeorological mast in Sodankylä, northern Finland, and (c) observations at the Helsinki Testbed stations: (i) to evaluate the skills of the models to compute nocturnal 2 m air temperature (T2m) and the temperature inversion; and (ii) to distinguish between the T2m bias and the subgrid‐scale spatial variability of T2m. The models were (1) the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), (2) the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM), (3) the Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME) developed by Météo‐France, and (4) the Global Forecasting System (GFS) of the US National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP). The results demonstrated a T2m bias increasing with decreasing temperature and strengthening temperature inversion. When a strong temperature inversion was observed in Sodankylä, the models underestimated it, whereas in near‐neutral conditions the stratification was overestimated. Comparison of observed and modelled 3 h temperature tendencies showed that the T2m tendency in the models was on average only 17–20% of the observed one. The warm bias in T2m forecast in Sodankylä during periods of observed temperature inversion partly resulted from a warm bias in the initial conditions. This was due to problems in data assimilation in IFS and HIRLAM, in initialization in AROME, and in either or both procedures in GFS. In particular, the IFS data assimilation increased the T2m bias. Evaluation of modelled T2m against grid‐averaged T2m observed at Helsinki Testbed demonstrated that the T2m model error dominated over the spatial variability of observed T2m. This suggests that over an almost flat terrain horizontal resolution is not a major factor for the accuracy of T2m forecast at low T2m typically associated with temperature inversions. Copyright © ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Finland Sodankylä Wiley Online Library Sodankylä ENVELOPE(26.600,26.600,67.417,67.417) Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 138 667 1440 1451 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Four operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were evaluated in winter conditions against (a) synoptic observations in Europe, (b) observations at a 48 m high micrometeorological mast in Sodankylä, northern Finland, and (c) observations at the Helsinki Testbed stations: (i) to evaluate the skills of the models to compute nocturnal 2 m air temperature (T2m) and the temperature inversion; and (ii) to distinguish between the T2m bias and the subgrid‐scale spatial variability of T2m. The models were (1) the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), (2) the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM), (3) the Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME) developed by Météo‐France, and (4) the Global Forecasting System (GFS) of the US National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP). The results demonstrated a T2m bias increasing with decreasing temperature and strengthening temperature inversion. When a strong temperature inversion was observed in Sodankylä, the models underestimated it, whereas in near‐neutral conditions the stratification was overestimated. Comparison of observed and modelled 3 h temperature tendencies showed that the T2m tendency in the models was on average only 17–20% of the observed one. The warm bias in T2m forecast in Sodankylä during periods of observed temperature inversion partly resulted from a warm bias in the initial conditions. This was due to problems in data assimilation in IFS and HIRLAM, in initialization in AROME, and in either or both procedures in GFS. In particular, the IFS data assimilation increased the T2m bias. Evaluation of modelled T2m against grid‐averaged T2m observed at Helsinki Testbed demonstrated that the T2m model error dominated over the spatial variability of observed T2m. This suggests that over an almost flat terrain horizontal resolution is not a major factor for the accuracy of T2m forecast at low T2m typically associated with temperature inversions. Copyright © ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Atlaskin, Evgeny Vihma, Timo |
spellingShingle |
Atlaskin, Evgeny Vihma, Timo Evaluation of NWP results for wintertime nocturnal boundary‐layer temperatures over Europe and Finland |
author_facet |
Atlaskin, Evgeny Vihma, Timo |
author_sort |
Atlaskin, Evgeny |
title |
Evaluation of NWP results for wintertime nocturnal boundary‐layer temperatures over Europe and Finland |
title_short |
Evaluation of NWP results for wintertime nocturnal boundary‐layer temperatures over Europe and Finland |
title_full |
Evaluation of NWP results for wintertime nocturnal boundary‐layer temperatures over Europe and Finland |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of NWP results for wintertime nocturnal boundary‐layer temperatures over Europe and Finland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of NWP results for wintertime nocturnal boundary‐layer temperatures over Europe and Finland |
title_sort |
evaluation of nwp results for wintertime nocturnal boundary‐layer temperatures over europe and finland |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.1885 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.1885 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.1885 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(26.600,26.600,67.417,67.417) |
geographic |
Sodankylä |
geographic_facet |
Sodankylä |
genre |
Northern Finland Sodankylä |
genre_facet |
Northern Finland Sodankylä |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society volume 138, issue 667, page 1440-1451 ISSN 0035-9009 1477-870X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1885 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
138 |
container_issue |
667 |
container_start_page |
1440 |
op_container_end_page |
1451 |
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1802648167349485568 |