Numeric simulation of permafrost degradation in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

• Published in: Permafrost and Periglacial Processes
• Main Authors: Li, Dongqing, Chen, Jin, Meng, Qingzhou, Liu, Dengke, Fang, Jianhong, Liu, Jiankun
• Other Authors: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Talent project of Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Program for new century excellent talents, Western Project Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2008
• Subjects: Ice; permafrost; Permafrost and Periglacial Processes
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppp.611; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fppp.611; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ppp.611

Abstract Rates of permafrost degradation at both the permafrost table and the base of permafrost were simulated using a prescribed rate of increase in mean annual air temperatures of 0.04°C/a for a site in continuous permafrost near Changshitou Mountain, eastern Tibetan Plateau. The results indicate that over 110 years, the permafrost table descends from a depth of 1.20 m to 1.48 m, and that the base of permafrost rises from the initial value of 55.0 m to 15.2 m. The predicted rate of basal permafrost degradation in low moisture content bedrock reaches a peak of 0.58 m/a after 60 years, assuming a constant thermal gradient at the base of 0.018°C/m. The permafrost is persistent due to the ice‐rich nature of the near‐surface soil layers. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.