A model for regional‐scale estimation of temporal and spatial variability of active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperatures
Abstract High‐latitude ecosystems where the mean annual ground surface temperature is around or below 0°C are highly sensitive to global warming. This is largely because these regions contain vast areas of permafrost, which begins to thaw when the mean annual temperature rises above freezing. The Ge...
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crwiley:10.1002/ppp.449 2024-09-15T17:34:51+00:00 A model for regional‐scale estimation of temporal and spatial variability of active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperatures Sazonova, T. S. Romanovsky, V. E. 2003 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppp.449 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fppp.449 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ppp.449 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Permafrost and Periglacial Processes volume 14, issue 2, page 125-139 ISSN 1045-6740 1099-1530 journal-article 2003 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.449 2024-08-27T04:32:26Z Abstract High‐latitude ecosystems where the mean annual ground surface temperature is around or below 0°C are highly sensitive to global warming. This is largely because these regions contain vast areas of permafrost, which begins to thaw when the mean annual temperature rises above freezing. The Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab has developed a new interactive geographical information systems (GIS) model to estimate the long‐term response of permafrost to changes in climate. An analytical approach is used for calculating both active layer thickness (ALT) and mean annual ground temperatures (MAGTs). When applied to long‐term (decadal or longer time scale) averages, this approach shows an accuracy of ±0.2–0.4°C for MAGTs and ±0.1–0.3 m for ALT calculations. The relative errors do not exceed 32% for ALT calculations, but typically they are between 10 and 25%. A spatial statistical analysis of the data from 32 sites in Siberia indicated a confidence level of 75% to have a deviation between measured and calculated MAGTs of 0.2–0.4°C. A detailed analysis has been performed for two regional transects in Alaska and eastern Siberia that has validated the use of the model. The results obtained from this analysis show that a more economical (in terms of computational time) analytical approach could be successfully used instead of a full‐scale numerical model in the regional and global scale analysis of permafrost spatial and temporal dynamics. This project has been a successful contribution to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment project. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer thickness Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Global warming permafrost Permafrost and Periglacial Processes Alaska Siberia Wiley Online Library Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 14 2 125 139 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract High‐latitude ecosystems where the mean annual ground surface temperature is around or below 0°C are highly sensitive to global warming. This is largely because these regions contain vast areas of permafrost, which begins to thaw when the mean annual temperature rises above freezing. The Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab has developed a new interactive geographical information systems (GIS) model to estimate the long‐term response of permafrost to changes in climate. An analytical approach is used for calculating both active layer thickness (ALT) and mean annual ground temperatures (MAGTs). When applied to long‐term (decadal or longer time scale) averages, this approach shows an accuracy of ±0.2–0.4°C for MAGTs and ±0.1–0.3 m for ALT calculations. The relative errors do not exceed 32% for ALT calculations, but typically they are between 10 and 25%. A spatial statistical analysis of the data from 32 sites in Siberia indicated a confidence level of 75% to have a deviation between measured and calculated MAGTs of 0.2–0.4°C. A detailed analysis has been performed for two regional transects in Alaska and eastern Siberia that has validated the use of the model. The results obtained from this analysis show that a more economical (in terms of computational time) analytical approach could be successfully used instead of a full‐scale numerical model in the regional and global scale analysis of permafrost spatial and temporal dynamics. This project has been a successful contribution to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment project. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sazonova, T. S. Romanovsky, V. E. |
spellingShingle |
Sazonova, T. S. Romanovsky, V. E. A model for regional‐scale estimation of temporal and spatial variability of active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperatures |
author_facet |
Sazonova, T. S. Romanovsky, V. E. |
author_sort |
Sazonova, T. S. |
title |
A model for regional‐scale estimation of temporal and spatial variability of active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperatures |
title_short |
A model for regional‐scale estimation of temporal and spatial variability of active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperatures |
title_full |
A model for regional‐scale estimation of temporal and spatial variability of active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperatures |
title_fullStr |
A model for regional‐scale estimation of temporal and spatial variability of active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperatures |
title_full_unstemmed |
A model for regional‐scale estimation of temporal and spatial variability of active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperatures |
title_sort |
model for regional‐scale estimation of temporal and spatial variability of active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperatures |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppp.449 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fppp.449 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ppp.449 |
genre |
Active layer thickness Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Global warming permafrost Permafrost and Periglacial Processes Alaska Siberia |
genre_facet |
Active layer thickness Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Global warming permafrost Permafrost and Periglacial Processes Alaska Siberia |
op_source |
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes volume 14, issue 2, page 125-139 ISSN 1045-6740 1099-1530 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.449 |
container_title |
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
125 |
op_container_end_page |
139 |
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1810430483607060480 |