Estimation of Permafrost Ground Ice to 10 m Depth on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau

• Published in: Permafrost and Periglacial Processes
• Main Authors: Zou, Defu, Pang, Qiangqiang, Zhao, Lin, Wang, Lingxiao, Hu, Guojie, Du, Erji, Liu, Guangyue, Liu, Shibo, Liu, Yadong
• Other Authors: National Natural Science Foundation of China
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2024
• Subjects: Ice; permafrost; Permafrost and Periglacial Processes
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2226; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ppp.2226

ABSTRACT Permafrost ground ice melting could alter hydrological processes in cold regions by releasing water. Currently, there is a lack of gridded data of ground ice from the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP). Using 664 borehole sample records, we applied a random forest (RF) method to predict the ground ice content of permafrost between 2 and 10 m depth in three layers (2–3, 3–5, and 5–10 m) at a spatial resolution of 1 km. The RF predictions demonstrated an R 2 value exceeding 0.80 for all three layers with a negligible positive overestimation (0.98%–1.85%). The ground ice content of the first layer (2–3 m) can be predicted primarily using climate variables, but the contribution of terrain and soil variables increases as the depth increases. The total water storage of ground ice across the QTP permafrost (2–10 m depth) is approximately 3330.0 km 3 , with 403.5 km 3 in the 2–3 m layer, 857.2 km 3 in the 3–5 m layer, and 2069.3 km 3 in the 5–10 m layer. This study generated for the first time a gridded dataset of the shallow permafrost ground ice content across the entire QTP which can be used to improve simulations of hydrological processes in the permafrost regions.