Impacts of ecological succession and climate warming on permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins of the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, Northwest Territories, Canada
Abstract Rapidly increasing air temperatures will alter permafrost conditions across the Arctic, but variation in soils, vegetation, snow conditions, and their effects on ground thermal regime complicate prediction across spatial and temporal scales. Processes that result in the emergence of new sur...
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crwiley:10.1002/ppp.2143 2024-06-23T07:50:46+00:00 Impacts of ecological succession and climate warming on permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins of the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, Northwest Territories, Canada Lantz, Trevor C. Zhang, Yu Kokelj, Steven V. Canada Foundation for Innovation Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2143 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ppp.2143 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ppp.2143 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Permafrost and Periglacial Processes volume 33, issue 2, page 176-192 ISSN 1045-6740 1099-1530 journal-article 2022 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2143 2024-05-31T08:12:44Z Abstract Rapidly increasing air temperatures will alter permafrost conditions across the Arctic, but variation in soils, vegetation, snow conditions, and their effects on ground thermal regime complicate prediction across spatial and temporal scales. Processes that result in the emergence of new surfaces (lake drainage, channel migration, isostatic uplift, etc.) provide an opportunity to assess the factors influencing permafrost aggradation and terrain evolution under a warming climate. In this study we describe ground temperatures, vegetation, and snow and soil conditions at six drained lake basins (DLBs) that have exposed new terrain in the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands in the last 20–100 years. We also use one‐dimensional thermal modeling to assess the impact of ecological succession and future climate scenarios on permafrost conditions in historical and future DLBs. Our field observations show that deep snow pack and shallow organic layers at shrub‐dominated DLBs promote increased thaw depth and ground temperatures compared to a sedge‐dominated DLB and two ancient DLB reference sites. Modeling of past and future drainages shows that climate warming projected under RCP 8.5 will reduce rates of permafrost aggradation and thickness, and drive top‐down thaw that could degrade permafrost in shrub‐dominated DLBs by the end of the century. Permafrost at sedge‐dominated sites was more resilient to warming under RCP 8.5, with the onset of top‐down thaw delayed until about 2080. Together, this indicates that the effects of ecological succession on organic soil development and snow drifting will strongly influence the aggradation and resilience of permafrost in DLBs. Our analysis suggests that DLBs and other emergent landscapes will be the first permafrost‐free environments to develop under a warming climate in the continuous permafrost zone. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Northwest Territories permafrost Permafrost and Periglacial Processes Tuktoyaktuk Wiley Online Library Arctic Canada Northwest Territories Tuktoyaktuk ENVELOPE(-133.006,-133.006,69.425,69.425) Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 33 2 176 192 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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language |
English |
description |
Abstract Rapidly increasing air temperatures will alter permafrost conditions across the Arctic, but variation in soils, vegetation, snow conditions, and their effects on ground thermal regime complicate prediction across spatial and temporal scales. Processes that result in the emergence of new surfaces (lake drainage, channel migration, isostatic uplift, etc.) provide an opportunity to assess the factors influencing permafrost aggradation and terrain evolution under a warming climate. In this study we describe ground temperatures, vegetation, and snow and soil conditions at six drained lake basins (DLBs) that have exposed new terrain in the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands in the last 20–100 years. We also use one‐dimensional thermal modeling to assess the impact of ecological succession and future climate scenarios on permafrost conditions in historical and future DLBs. Our field observations show that deep snow pack and shallow organic layers at shrub‐dominated DLBs promote increased thaw depth and ground temperatures compared to a sedge‐dominated DLB and two ancient DLB reference sites. Modeling of past and future drainages shows that climate warming projected under RCP 8.5 will reduce rates of permafrost aggradation and thickness, and drive top‐down thaw that could degrade permafrost in shrub‐dominated DLBs by the end of the century. Permafrost at sedge‐dominated sites was more resilient to warming under RCP 8.5, with the onset of top‐down thaw delayed until about 2080. Together, this indicates that the effects of ecological succession on organic soil development and snow drifting will strongly influence the aggradation and resilience of permafrost in DLBs. Our analysis suggests that DLBs and other emergent landscapes will be the first permafrost‐free environments to develop under a warming climate in the continuous permafrost zone. |
author2 |
Canada Foundation for Innovation Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lantz, Trevor C. Zhang, Yu Kokelj, Steven V. |
spellingShingle |
Lantz, Trevor C. Zhang, Yu Kokelj, Steven V. Impacts of ecological succession and climate warming on permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins of the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, Northwest Territories, Canada |
author_facet |
Lantz, Trevor C. Zhang, Yu Kokelj, Steven V. |
author_sort |
Lantz, Trevor C. |
title |
Impacts of ecological succession and climate warming on permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins of the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, Northwest Territories, Canada |
title_short |
Impacts of ecological succession and climate warming on permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins of the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, Northwest Territories, Canada |
title_full |
Impacts of ecological succession and climate warming on permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins of the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, Northwest Territories, Canada |
title_fullStr |
Impacts of ecological succession and climate warming on permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins of the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, Northwest Territories, Canada |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacts of ecological succession and climate warming on permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins of the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, Northwest Territories, Canada |
title_sort |
impacts of ecological succession and climate warming on permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins of the tuktoyaktuk coastlands, northwest territories, canada |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2143 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ppp.2143 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ppp.2143 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-133.006,-133.006,69.425,69.425) |
geographic |
Arctic Canada Northwest Territories Tuktoyaktuk |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada Northwest Territories Tuktoyaktuk |
genre |
Arctic Northwest Territories permafrost Permafrost and Periglacial Processes Tuktoyaktuk |
genre_facet |
Arctic Northwest Territories permafrost Permafrost and Periglacial Processes Tuktoyaktuk |
op_source |
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes volume 33, issue 2, page 176-192 ISSN 1045-6740 1099-1530 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2143 |
container_title |
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes |
container_volume |
33 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
176 |
op_container_end_page |
192 |
_version_ |
1802641678866055168 |