Observations and modelling of ground temperature evolution in the discontinuous permafrost zone in Nadym, north‐west Siberia
Abstract We analyze ground temperatures measured daily at depths of 0–10 m in the Nadym region, north‐west Siberia (65°18′N, 72°6′E). Nadym is located within the discontinuous permafrost zone and the forest–tundra transition subzone, thus representing an area threatened by permafrost thawing. Soil c...
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crwiley:10.1002/ppp.2040 2024-09-30T14:41:05+00:00 Observations and modelling of ground temperature evolution in the discontinuous permafrost zone in Nadym, north‐west Siberia Kukkonen, Ilmo T. Suhonen, Elli Ezhova, Ekaterina Lappalainen, Hanna Gennadinik, Victor Ponomareva, Olga Gravis, Andrey Miles, Victoria Kulmala, Markku Melnikov, Vladimir Drozdov, Dmitry Russian Academy of Sciences 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2040 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fppp.2040 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ppp.2040 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ppp.2040 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Permafrost and Periglacial Processes volume 31, issue 2, page 264-280 ISSN 1045-6740 1099-1530 journal-article 2020 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2040 2024-09-05T05:05:35Z Abstract We analyze ground temperatures measured daily at depths of 0–10 m in the Nadym region, north‐west Siberia (65°18′N, 72°6′E). Nadym is located within the discontinuous permafrost zone and the forest–tundra transition subzone, thus representing an area threatened by permafrost thawing. Soil comprises a 0.4–1.0‐m‐thick topmost layer of peat with high porosity (~0.9), underlain by layers of mineral soil (sand, clay, loam) with lower porosities of 0.3–0.4. With a numerical heat transfer model, we provide predictions of general permafrost development for the next 300 years. Furthermore, we apply the model with the same time frame, to predict permafrost evolution in two monitoring boreholes (BH) in the Nadym area, BH 1‐09 and 3‐09 with present (2012–2016) temperatures at the top of the permafrost (TTOP) of −2.0 and 0.0 °C, respectively. Applying a mild warming trend (0.02 °C/yr in mean annual air temperature [MAAT], corresponding to the IPCC representative concentration pathway trend RCP 2.6) does not lead to thawing of permafrost during the applied 300 years of simulation time in BH 1‐09, whereas in BH 3‐09 thawing has already begun. Applying a strong warming trend of 0.05 °C/yr in MAAT (corresponding to RCP 8.5) leads to gradual thawing of permafrost in both boreholes. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Permafrost and Periglacial Processes Tundra Siberia Wiley Online Library Nadym ENVELOPE(72.517,72.517,65.533,65.533) Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 31 2 264 280 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract We analyze ground temperatures measured daily at depths of 0–10 m in the Nadym region, north‐west Siberia (65°18′N, 72°6′E). Nadym is located within the discontinuous permafrost zone and the forest–tundra transition subzone, thus representing an area threatened by permafrost thawing. Soil comprises a 0.4–1.0‐m‐thick topmost layer of peat with high porosity (~0.9), underlain by layers of mineral soil (sand, clay, loam) with lower porosities of 0.3–0.4. With a numerical heat transfer model, we provide predictions of general permafrost development for the next 300 years. Furthermore, we apply the model with the same time frame, to predict permafrost evolution in two monitoring boreholes (BH) in the Nadym area, BH 1‐09 and 3‐09 with present (2012–2016) temperatures at the top of the permafrost (TTOP) of −2.0 and 0.0 °C, respectively. Applying a mild warming trend (0.02 °C/yr in mean annual air temperature [MAAT], corresponding to the IPCC representative concentration pathway trend RCP 2.6) does not lead to thawing of permafrost during the applied 300 years of simulation time in BH 1‐09, whereas in BH 3‐09 thawing has already begun. Applying a strong warming trend of 0.05 °C/yr in MAAT (corresponding to RCP 8.5) leads to gradual thawing of permafrost in both boreholes. |
author2 |
Russian Academy of Sciences |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kukkonen, Ilmo T. Suhonen, Elli Ezhova, Ekaterina Lappalainen, Hanna Gennadinik, Victor Ponomareva, Olga Gravis, Andrey Miles, Victoria Kulmala, Markku Melnikov, Vladimir Drozdov, Dmitry |
spellingShingle |
Kukkonen, Ilmo T. Suhonen, Elli Ezhova, Ekaterina Lappalainen, Hanna Gennadinik, Victor Ponomareva, Olga Gravis, Andrey Miles, Victoria Kulmala, Markku Melnikov, Vladimir Drozdov, Dmitry Observations and modelling of ground temperature evolution in the discontinuous permafrost zone in Nadym, north‐west Siberia |
author_facet |
Kukkonen, Ilmo T. Suhonen, Elli Ezhova, Ekaterina Lappalainen, Hanna Gennadinik, Victor Ponomareva, Olga Gravis, Andrey Miles, Victoria Kulmala, Markku Melnikov, Vladimir Drozdov, Dmitry |
author_sort |
Kukkonen, Ilmo T. |
title |
Observations and modelling of ground temperature evolution in the discontinuous permafrost zone in Nadym, north‐west Siberia |
title_short |
Observations and modelling of ground temperature evolution in the discontinuous permafrost zone in Nadym, north‐west Siberia |
title_full |
Observations and modelling of ground temperature evolution in the discontinuous permafrost zone in Nadym, north‐west Siberia |
title_fullStr |
Observations and modelling of ground temperature evolution in the discontinuous permafrost zone in Nadym, north‐west Siberia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observations and modelling of ground temperature evolution in the discontinuous permafrost zone in Nadym, north‐west Siberia |
title_sort |
observations and modelling of ground temperature evolution in the discontinuous permafrost zone in nadym, north‐west siberia |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2040 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fppp.2040 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ppp.2040 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ppp.2040 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(72.517,72.517,65.533,65.533) |
geographic |
Nadym |
geographic_facet |
Nadym |
genre |
permafrost Permafrost and Periglacial Processes Tundra Siberia |
genre_facet |
permafrost Permafrost and Periglacial Processes Tundra Siberia |
op_source |
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes volume 31, issue 2, page 264-280 ISSN 1045-6740 1099-1530 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2040 |
container_title |
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes |
container_volume |
31 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
264 |
op_container_end_page |
280 |
_version_ |
1811643510151970816 |