Excessive positive response of model‐simulated land net primary production to climate changes over circumboreal forests
Abstract Land carbon cycle components in an Earth system model (ESM) play a crucial role in the projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate/environmental changes. Evaluating models from the viewpoint of observations is essential for an improved understanding of model performance and for ide...
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crwiley:10.1002/pei3.10025 2024-06-23T07:57:28+00:00 Excessive positive response of model‐simulated land net primary production to climate changes over circumboreal forests Tei, Shunsuke Sugimoto, Atsuko Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/pei3.10025 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fpei3.10025 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/pei3.10025 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/pei3.10025 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1002%2Fpei3.10025 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Plant-Environment Interactions volume 1, issue 2, page 102-121 ISSN 2575-6265 2575-6265 journal-article 2020 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/pei3.10025 2024-06-06T04:24:45Z Abstract Land carbon cycle components in an Earth system model (ESM) play a crucial role in the projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate/environmental changes. Evaluating models from the viewpoint of observations is essential for an improved understanding of model performance and for identifying uncertainties in their outputs. Herein, we evaluated the land net primary production (NPP) for circumboreal forests simulated with 10 ESMs in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project by comparisons with observation‐based indexes for forest productivity, namely, the composite version 3G of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) and tree‐ring width index (RWI). These indexes show similar patterns in response to past climate change over the forests, i.e., a one‐year time lag response and smaller positive responses to past climate changes in comparison with the land NPP simulated by the ESMs. The latter showed overly positive responses to past temperature and/or precipitation changes in comparison with the NDVI3g and RWI. These results indicate that ESMs may overestimate the future forest NPP of circumboreal forests (particularly for inland dry regions, such as inner Alaska and Canada, and eastern Siberia, and for hotter, southern regions, such as central Europe) under the expected increases in both average global temperature and precipitation, which are common to all current ESMs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Alaska Siberia Wiley Online Library Canada Plant-Environment Interactions 1 2 102 121 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract Land carbon cycle components in an Earth system model (ESM) play a crucial role in the projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate/environmental changes. Evaluating models from the viewpoint of observations is essential for an improved understanding of model performance and for identifying uncertainties in their outputs. Herein, we evaluated the land net primary production (NPP) for circumboreal forests simulated with 10 ESMs in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project by comparisons with observation‐based indexes for forest productivity, namely, the composite version 3G of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) and tree‐ring width index (RWI). These indexes show similar patterns in response to past climate change over the forests, i.e., a one‐year time lag response and smaller positive responses to past climate changes in comparison with the land NPP simulated by the ESMs. The latter showed overly positive responses to past temperature and/or precipitation changes in comparison with the NDVI3g and RWI. These results indicate that ESMs may overestimate the future forest NPP of circumboreal forests (particularly for inland dry regions, such as inner Alaska and Canada, and eastern Siberia, and for hotter, southern regions, such as central Europe) under the expected increases in both average global temperature and precipitation, which are common to all current ESMs. |
author2 |
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tei, Shunsuke Sugimoto, Atsuko |
spellingShingle |
Tei, Shunsuke Sugimoto, Atsuko Excessive positive response of model‐simulated land net primary production to climate changes over circumboreal forests |
author_facet |
Tei, Shunsuke Sugimoto, Atsuko |
author_sort |
Tei, Shunsuke |
title |
Excessive positive response of model‐simulated land net primary production to climate changes over circumboreal forests |
title_short |
Excessive positive response of model‐simulated land net primary production to climate changes over circumboreal forests |
title_full |
Excessive positive response of model‐simulated land net primary production to climate changes over circumboreal forests |
title_fullStr |
Excessive positive response of model‐simulated land net primary production to climate changes over circumboreal forests |
title_full_unstemmed |
Excessive positive response of model‐simulated land net primary production to climate changes over circumboreal forests |
title_sort |
excessive positive response of model‐simulated land net primary production to climate changes over circumboreal forests |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/pei3.10025 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fpei3.10025 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/pei3.10025 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/pei3.10025 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1002%2Fpei3.10025 |
geographic |
Canada |
geographic_facet |
Canada |
genre |
Alaska Siberia |
genre_facet |
Alaska Siberia |
op_source |
Plant-Environment Interactions volume 1, issue 2, page 102-121 ISSN 2575-6265 2575-6265 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/pei3.10025 |
container_title |
Plant-Environment Interactions |
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1 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
102 |
op_container_end_page |
121 |
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1802651137025769472 |