Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach
Abstract The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the ene...
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crwiley:10.1002/met.2089 2024-09-15T18:09:56+00:00 Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach Otero, Noelia Martius, Olivia Allen, Sam Bloomfield, Hannah Schaefli, Bettina 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/met.2089 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/met.2089 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/met.2089 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Meteorological Applications volume 29, issue 5 ISSN 1350-4827 1469-8080 journal-article 2022 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 2024-08-30T04:11:31Z Abstract The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the energy demand and supply becomes a great challenge. We characterize energy compound events, defined as periods of simultaneous low renewable production of wind and solar power, and high electricity demand. Using a logistic regression approach, we examine the influence of meteorological and atmospheric drivers on energy compound events. Moreover, we assess the spatial coherence of energy compound events that pose a major challenge within an interconnected power grid, as they can affect multiple countries simultaneously. On average, European countries are exposed to winter energy compound events more than twice per year. The combination of extremely low temperatures and low wind speeds is associated with a higher probability of occurrence of energy compound events. Furthermore, we show that blocked weather regimes have a major influence on energy compound events. In particular, Greenland and European blocking lead to widespread energy compound events that affect multiple countries at the same time. Our results highlight the relevance of weather regimes resulting in synchronous spatial energy compound events, which might pose a greater risk within a potential fully interconnected European grid. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Wiley Online Library Meteorological Applications 29 5 |
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English |
description |
Abstract The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the energy demand and supply becomes a great challenge. We characterize energy compound events, defined as periods of simultaneous low renewable production of wind and solar power, and high electricity demand. Using a logistic regression approach, we examine the influence of meteorological and atmospheric drivers on energy compound events. Moreover, we assess the spatial coherence of energy compound events that pose a major challenge within an interconnected power grid, as they can affect multiple countries simultaneously. On average, European countries are exposed to winter energy compound events more than twice per year. The combination of extremely low temperatures and low wind speeds is associated with a higher probability of occurrence of energy compound events. Furthermore, we show that blocked weather regimes have a major influence on energy compound events. In particular, Greenland and European blocking lead to widespread energy compound events that affect multiple countries at the same time. Our results highlight the relevance of weather regimes resulting in synchronous spatial energy compound events, which might pose a greater risk within a potential fully interconnected European grid. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Otero, Noelia Martius, Olivia Allen, Sam Bloomfield, Hannah Schaefli, Bettina |
spellingShingle |
Otero, Noelia Martius, Olivia Allen, Sam Bloomfield, Hannah Schaefli, Bettina Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
author_facet |
Otero, Noelia Martius, Olivia Allen, Sam Bloomfield, Hannah Schaefli, Bettina |
author_sort |
Otero, Noelia |
title |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
title_short |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
title_full |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
title_fullStr |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
title_sort |
characterizing renewable energy compound events across europe using a logistic regression‐based approach |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/met.2089 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/met.2089 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/met.2089 |
genre |
Greenland |
genre_facet |
Greenland |
op_source |
Meteorological Applications volume 29, issue 5 ISSN 1350-4827 1469-8080 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089 |
container_title |
Meteorological Applications |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
5 |
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1810447533909999616 |