Application of a structured decision‐making process in cryospheric hazard planning: Case study of Bering Glacier surges on local state planning in Alaska
Abstract Surging glaciers are glaciers that experience rapidly accelerated glacier flow over a comparatively short period of time. Though relatively rare worldwide, Alaska is home to the largest number of surge‐type glaciers globally. However, their impact on the broader socioecological system in th...
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crwiley:10.1002/mcda.1825 2024-06-02T08:07:00+00:00 Application of a structured decision‐making process in cryospheric hazard planning: Case study of Bering Glacier surges on local state planning in Alaska Abdel‐Fattah, Dina Danielson, Mats Ekenberg, Love Hock, Regine Trainor, Sarah National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. Department of Agriculture 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/mcda.1825 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/mcda.1825 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis volume 31, issue 1-2 ISSN 1057-9214 1099-1360 journal-article 2023 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/mcda.1825 2024-05-03T12:02:16Z Abstract Surging glaciers are glaciers that experience rapidly accelerated glacier flow over a comparatively short period of time. Though relatively rare worldwide, Alaska is home to the largest number of surge‐type glaciers globally. However, their impact on the broader socioecological system in the state is both poorly understood and under‐researched, which poses a challenge in developing appropriate sustainability decisions in Alaska. We investigated how the surge patterns of the Bering Glacier in Alaska have potentially devastating effects on the local ecological biodiversity of its watershed via a structured decision‐making analysis of the different possible consequences. Specifically, this analysis was conducted to explore the various outcomes of a Bering Glacier surge particularly if humans have an increased presence near the glacier due to the area potentially becoming a state park. This work explored the benefits of applying a risk and decision analytical framework in a cryosphere context, to better understand the socioeconomic impact of glacier surges. This is a novel approach in which a decision analysis tool was used to better understand an environmental sustainability challenge, offering an innovative method to support the achievement of the United Nations Sustainability Development Goals in Alaska. We therefore emphasise the need for integrated biophysical and socioeconomic analyses when it comes to understanding glacier hazards. Our research highlights the importance of understanding and researching biophysical changes as well as using a structured decision‐making process for complicated hazard planning scenarios, exemplified via glaciated regions in Alaska, in order to create adaptation strategies that are sustainable and encompass the range of possible outcomes. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier glaciers Alaska Wiley Online Library Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 31 1-2 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract Surging glaciers are glaciers that experience rapidly accelerated glacier flow over a comparatively short period of time. Though relatively rare worldwide, Alaska is home to the largest number of surge‐type glaciers globally. However, their impact on the broader socioecological system in the state is both poorly understood and under‐researched, which poses a challenge in developing appropriate sustainability decisions in Alaska. We investigated how the surge patterns of the Bering Glacier in Alaska have potentially devastating effects on the local ecological biodiversity of its watershed via a structured decision‐making analysis of the different possible consequences. Specifically, this analysis was conducted to explore the various outcomes of a Bering Glacier surge particularly if humans have an increased presence near the glacier due to the area potentially becoming a state park. This work explored the benefits of applying a risk and decision analytical framework in a cryosphere context, to better understand the socioeconomic impact of glacier surges. This is a novel approach in which a decision analysis tool was used to better understand an environmental sustainability challenge, offering an innovative method to support the achievement of the United Nations Sustainability Development Goals in Alaska. We therefore emphasise the need for integrated biophysical and socioeconomic analyses when it comes to understanding glacier hazards. Our research highlights the importance of understanding and researching biophysical changes as well as using a structured decision‐making process for complicated hazard planning scenarios, exemplified via glaciated regions in Alaska, in order to create adaptation strategies that are sustainable and encompass the range of possible outcomes. |
author2 |
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. Department of Agriculture |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abdel‐Fattah, Dina Danielson, Mats Ekenberg, Love Hock, Regine Trainor, Sarah |
spellingShingle |
Abdel‐Fattah, Dina Danielson, Mats Ekenberg, Love Hock, Regine Trainor, Sarah Application of a structured decision‐making process in cryospheric hazard planning: Case study of Bering Glacier surges on local state planning in Alaska |
author_facet |
Abdel‐Fattah, Dina Danielson, Mats Ekenberg, Love Hock, Regine Trainor, Sarah |
author_sort |
Abdel‐Fattah, Dina |
title |
Application of a structured decision‐making process in cryospheric hazard planning: Case study of Bering Glacier surges on local state planning in Alaska |
title_short |
Application of a structured decision‐making process in cryospheric hazard planning: Case study of Bering Glacier surges on local state planning in Alaska |
title_full |
Application of a structured decision‐making process in cryospheric hazard planning: Case study of Bering Glacier surges on local state planning in Alaska |
title_fullStr |
Application of a structured decision‐making process in cryospheric hazard planning: Case study of Bering Glacier surges on local state planning in Alaska |
title_full_unstemmed |
Application of a structured decision‐making process in cryospheric hazard planning: Case study of Bering Glacier surges on local state planning in Alaska |
title_sort |
application of a structured decision‐making process in cryospheric hazard planning: case study of bering glacier surges on local state planning in alaska |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/mcda.1825 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/mcda.1825 |
genre |
glacier glaciers Alaska |
genre_facet |
glacier glaciers Alaska |
op_source |
Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis volume 31, issue 1-2 ISSN 1057-9214 1099-1360 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/mcda.1825 |
container_title |
Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis |
container_volume |
31 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
_version_ |
1800752014473297920 |