A Bayesian mixing model framework for quantifying temporal variation in source of sediment to lakes across broad hydrological gradients of floodplains
Abstract Paleolimnological reconstructions provide insights into hydrological variability of dynamic floodplain lakes. However, spatial and temporal integration of multiple reconstructions often remains underdeveloped because the efficacy of different paleolimnological measurements varies among lake...
Published in: | Limnology and Oceanography: Methods |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/lom3.10443 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/lom3.10443 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/lom3.10443 https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/lom3.10443 |
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crwiley:10.1002/lom3.10443 2024-06-02T08:03:05+00:00 A Bayesian mixing model framework for quantifying temporal variation in source of sediment to lakes across broad hydrological gradients of floodplains Kay, Mitchell L. Swanson, Heidi K. Burbank, Jacob Owca, Tanner J. MacDonald, Lauren A. Savage, Cory A. M. Remmer, Casey R. Neary, Laura K. Wiklund, Johan A. Wolfe, Brent B. Hall, Roland I. Alberta Environment and Parks BC Hydro Canadian Natural Resources Limited Natural Resources Canada Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Polar Knowledge Canada Suncor Energy Incorporated 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/lom3.10443 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/lom3.10443 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/lom3.10443 https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/lom3.10443 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Limnology and Oceanography: Methods volume 19, issue 8, page 540-551 ISSN 1541-5856 1541-5856 journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/lom3.10443 2024-05-06T07:01:48Z Abstract Paleolimnological reconstructions provide insights into hydrological variability of dynamic floodplain lakes. However, spatial and temporal integration of multiple reconstructions often remains underdeveloped because the efficacy of different paleolimnological measurements varies among lakes due to gradients in energy of floodwaters and sediment composition. Here, we use linear discriminant analysis to identify 10 significant elemental concentrations in sediment obtained from multiple sampling campaigns that distinguish among three end‐member allochthonous sources for lakes in the Peace‐Athabasca Delta (PAD; Canada): Athabasca River, Peace River, and local catchment runoff. Over 90% of sediment samples were correctly classified into original groups after cross‐validation due to the distinctiveness of the three end‐members, which permitted development of a robust Bayesian mixing model to discern the relative contributions of sediment from the three sources. We evaluate performance of the mixing model via application to sediment cores from two adjacent lakes in the Athabasca sector of the PAD and demonstrate its effectiveness to discriminate three known hydrological phases during the past 300 years. Notably, model results indicated that ~ 60% of the sediment originated from the Peace River during the largest ice‐jam flood event on record (1974), which was unrecognized by other methods. The approach provides a new, universal method that can be applied across the full range of sediment composition to quantify changes in source, frequency, and magnitude of sediment delivery by river floodwaters to lakes and is transferable to other dynamic floodplain landscapes where broad range of sediment composition challenges application of other approaches. Article in Journal/Newspaper Athabasca River Peace River Wiley Online Library Athabasca River Canada Peace-Athabasca Delta ENVELOPE(-111.502,-111.502,58.667,58.667) Limnology and Oceanography: Methods 19 8 540 551 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Paleolimnological reconstructions provide insights into hydrological variability of dynamic floodplain lakes. However, spatial and temporal integration of multiple reconstructions often remains underdeveloped because the efficacy of different paleolimnological measurements varies among lakes due to gradients in energy of floodwaters and sediment composition. Here, we use linear discriminant analysis to identify 10 significant elemental concentrations in sediment obtained from multiple sampling campaigns that distinguish among three end‐member allochthonous sources for lakes in the Peace‐Athabasca Delta (PAD; Canada): Athabasca River, Peace River, and local catchment runoff. Over 90% of sediment samples were correctly classified into original groups after cross‐validation due to the distinctiveness of the three end‐members, which permitted development of a robust Bayesian mixing model to discern the relative contributions of sediment from the three sources. We evaluate performance of the mixing model via application to sediment cores from two adjacent lakes in the Athabasca sector of the PAD and demonstrate its effectiveness to discriminate three known hydrological phases during the past 300 years. Notably, model results indicated that ~ 60% of the sediment originated from the Peace River during the largest ice‐jam flood event on record (1974), which was unrecognized by other methods. The approach provides a new, universal method that can be applied across the full range of sediment composition to quantify changes in source, frequency, and magnitude of sediment delivery by river floodwaters to lakes and is transferable to other dynamic floodplain landscapes where broad range of sediment composition challenges application of other approaches. |
author2 |
Alberta Environment and Parks BC Hydro Canadian Natural Resources Limited Natural Resources Canada Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Polar Knowledge Canada Suncor Energy Incorporated |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kay, Mitchell L. Swanson, Heidi K. Burbank, Jacob Owca, Tanner J. MacDonald, Lauren A. Savage, Cory A. M. Remmer, Casey R. Neary, Laura K. Wiklund, Johan A. Wolfe, Brent B. Hall, Roland I. |
spellingShingle |
Kay, Mitchell L. Swanson, Heidi K. Burbank, Jacob Owca, Tanner J. MacDonald, Lauren A. Savage, Cory A. M. Remmer, Casey R. Neary, Laura K. Wiklund, Johan A. Wolfe, Brent B. Hall, Roland I. A Bayesian mixing model framework for quantifying temporal variation in source of sediment to lakes across broad hydrological gradients of floodplains |
author_facet |
Kay, Mitchell L. Swanson, Heidi K. Burbank, Jacob Owca, Tanner J. MacDonald, Lauren A. Savage, Cory A. M. Remmer, Casey R. Neary, Laura K. Wiklund, Johan A. Wolfe, Brent B. Hall, Roland I. |
author_sort |
Kay, Mitchell L. |
title |
A Bayesian mixing model framework for quantifying temporal variation in source of sediment to lakes across broad hydrological gradients of floodplains |
title_short |
A Bayesian mixing model framework for quantifying temporal variation in source of sediment to lakes across broad hydrological gradients of floodplains |
title_full |
A Bayesian mixing model framework for quantifying temporal variation in source of sediment to lakes across broad hydrological gradients of floodplains |
title_fullStr |
A Bayesian mixing model framework for quantifying temporal variation in source of sediment to lakes across broad hydrological gradients of floodplains |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Bayesian mixing model framework for quantifying temporal variation in source of sediment to lakes across broad hydrological gradients of floodplains |
title_sort |
bayesian mixing model framework for quantifying temporal variation in source of sediment to lakes across broad hydrological gradients of floodplains |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/lom3.10443 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/lom3.10443 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/lom3.10443 https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/lom3.10443 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-111.502,-111.502,58.667,58.667) |
geographic |
Athabasca River Canada Peace-Athabasca Delta |
geographic_facet |
Athabasca River Canada Peace-Athabasca Delta |
genre |
Athabasca River Peace River |
genre_facet |
Athabasca River Peace River |
op_source |
Limnology and Oceanography: Methods volume 19, issue 8, page 540-551 ISSN 1541-5856 1541-5856 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/lom3.10443 |
container_title |
Limnology and Oceanography: Methods |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
540 |
op_container_end_page |
551 |
_version_ |
1800747547917025280 |