Using Distance Sampling‐Based Integrated Population Models to Identify Key Demographic Parameters
ABSTRACT Effective wildlife management relies on rigorous estimates of population parameters, although data for small populations are often sparse, limiting inference. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a potential solution by formally combining data sets in a unified analysis, thereby improv...
Published in: | The Journal of Wildlife Management |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21805 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjwmg.21805 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/jwmg.21805 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/jwmg.21805 |
id |
crwiley:10.1002/jwmg.21805 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crwiley:10.1002/jwmg.21805 2024-09-15T18:18:57+00:00 Using Distance Sampling‐Based Integrated Population Models to Identify Key Demographic Parameters Schmidt, Joshua H. Robison, Hillary L. 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21805 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjwmg.21805 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/jwmg.21805 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/jwmg.21805 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor The Journal of Wildlife Management volume 84, issue 2, page 372-381 ISSN 0022-541X 1937-2817 journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21805 2024-08-01T04:22:24Z ABSTRACT Effective wildlife management relies on rigorous estimates of population parameters, although data for small populations are often sparse, limiting inference. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a potential solution by formally combining data sets in a unified analysis, thereby improving precision and allowing the estimation of latent parameters. We expected that incorporating open‐population distance sampling models into an IPM framework would provide further advantages for assessing population dynamics, particularly for rare species. We present an open‐distance IPM combining separate sources of abundance, composition, survival, and harvest data to better understand the dynamics of a small (~200 individuals) muskox ( Ovibos moschatus ) population in northwestern Alaska, USA. There was a 75% chance the muskox population in our study area was declining (λ < 1.0), primarily because of a −4.3%/year decline in adult females, and estimated survival probabilities were 0.70, 0.87, and 0.89 for yearlings, adult females, and adult males (harvest excluded), respectively. Insufficient numbers of recruits drove the decline in adult females, and harvest likely limited the adult male component of the population, accounting for up to 50% of mortalities. Together, these results suggest more conservative harvest management might be appropriate moving forward. In contrast, the results from a more conventional analysis were largely ambiguous, which would inevitably lead to delays in the application of appropriate management actions. Our work furthers the development of open‐population distance sampling models and IPMs and demonstrates an efficient approach for managing small populations when extensive marking of individuals is not possible. Published 2019. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Article in Journal/Newspaper muskox ovibos moschatus Alaska Wiley Online Library The Journal of Wildlife Management 84 2 372 381 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
ABSTRACT Effective wildlife management relies on rigorous estimates of population parameters, although data for small populations are often sparse, limiting inference. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a potential solution by formally combining data sets in a unified analysis, thereby improving precision and allowing the estimation of latent parameters. We expected that incorporating open‐population distance sampling models into an IPM framework would provide further advantages for assessing population dynamics, particularly for rare species. We present an open‐distance IPM combining separate sources of abundance, composition, survival, and harvest data to better understand the dynamics of a small (~200 individuals) muskox ( Ovibos moschatus ) population in northwestern Alaska, USA. There was a 75% chance the muskox population in our study area was declining (λ < 1.0), primarily because of a −4.3%/year decline in adult females, and estimated survival probabilities were 0.70, 0.87, and 0.89 for yearlings, adult females, and adult males (harvest excluded), respectively. Insufficient numbers of recruits drove the decline in adult females, and harvest likely limited the adult male component of the population, accounting for up to 50% of mortalities. Together, these results suggest more conservative harvest management might be appropriate moving forward. In contrast, the results from a more conventional analysis were largely ambiguous, which would inevitably lead to delays in the application of appropriate management actions. Our work furthers the development of open‐population distance sampling models and IPMs and demonstrates an efficient approach for managing small populations when extensive marking of individuals is not possible. Published 2019. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schmidt, Joshua H. Robison, Hillary L. |
spellingShingle |
Schmidt, Joshua H. Robison, Hillary L. Using Distance Sampling‐Based Integrated Population Models to Identify Key Demographic Parameters |
author_facet |
Schmidt, Joshua H. Robison, Hillary L. |
author_sort |
Schmidt, Joshua H. |
title |
Using Distance Sampling‐Based Integrated Population Models to Identify Key Demographic Parameters |
title_short |
Using Distance Sampling‐Based Integrated Population Models to Identify Key Demographic Parameters |
title_full |
Using Distance Sampling‐Based Integrated Population Models to Identify Key Demographic Parameters |
title_fullStr |
Using Distance Sampling‐Based Integrated Population Models to Identify Key Demographic Parameters |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using Distance Sampling‐Based Integrated Population Models to Identify Key Demographic Parameters |
title_sort |
using distance sampling‐based integrated population models to identify key demographic parameters |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21805 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjwmg.21805 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/jwmg.21805 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/jwmg.21805 |
genre |
muskox ovibos moschatus Alaska |
genre_facet |
muskox ovibos moschatus Alaska |
op_source |
The Journal of Wildlife Management volume 84, issue 2, page 372-381 ISSN 0022-541X 1937-2817 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21805 |
container_title |
The Journal of Wildlife Management |
container_volume |
84 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
372 |
op_container_end_page |
381 |
_version_ |
1810457045450620928 |