Assessing two different climatic models and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the description of winter precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula
Abstract The main questions motivating this study are: Can climate simulations describe the observations? To what extent can we use climate models to predict climate change? For this purpose, an analysis was made of the correspondences and/or discrepancies between observed winter precipitation data...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.999 2024-06-02T08:02:40+00:00 Assessing two different climatic models and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the description of winter precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula Nieto, Susana Dolores Frías, M. Rodríguez‐Puebla, Concepción Spanish Government Regional Government of Castile and Leon 2004 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.999 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.999 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.999 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 24, issue 3, page 361-376 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2004 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.999 2024-05-03T11:21:02Z Abstract The main questions motivating this study are: Can climate simulations describe the observations? To what extent can we use climate models to predict climate change? For this purpose, an analysis was made of the correspondences and/or discrepancies between observed winter precipitation data and the data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis project, and from two global climatic models: ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3. The data used correspond to the accumulated winter precipitation for the period 1949–2000, and comparisons of the mean and variability patterns were made. The methods used were principal components analysis, to break down variability and reduce the dimensions of the fields, and correlation and cross‐spectrum analyses for comparison of the time series. For all these, we studied the suitability of their average distributions, as well as their modes of spatial and spectral variability. The results for the Iberian Peninsula show good agreement between the precipitation data of the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the observations, both in the average analysis and in the main modes of spatial and time variability. Therefore, the reanalysis data were proved to be a good resource for interpreting climate variations. As regards the climatic models considered, in general the results point to their suitability for describing the spatial distribution of winter precipitation, whereas the spectral association is less appropriate. The variability of the precipitation data was related to circulation patterns and teleconnection indices, such as the North Atlantic oscillation and the Arctic oscillation. The results allow us to conclude that the discrepancies between the two models and observations must be due to a weak representation of the interannual variability. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Arctic International Journal of Climatology 24 3 361 376 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The main questions motivating this study are: Can climate simulations describe the observations? To what extent can we use climate models to predict climate change? For this purpose, an analysis was made of the correspondences and/or discrepancies between observed winter precipitation data and the data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis project, and from two global climatic models: ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3. The data used correspond to the accumulated winter precipitation for the period 1949–2000, and comparisons of the mean and variability patterns were made. The methods used were principal components analysis, to break down variability and reduce the dimensions of the fields, and correlation and cross‐spectrum analyses for comparison of the time series. For all these, we studied the suitability of their average distributions, as well as their modes of spatial and spectral variability. The results for the Iberian Peninsula show good agreement between the precipitation data of the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the observations, both in the average analysis and in the main modes of spatial and time variability. Therefore, the reanalysis data were proved to be a good resource for interpreting climate variations. As regards the climatic models considered, in general the results point to their suitability for describing the spatial distribution of winter precipitation, whereas the spectral association is less appropriate. The variability of the precipitation data was related to circulation patterns and teleconnection indices, such as the North Atlantic oscillation and the Arctic oscillation. The results allow us to conclude that the discrepancies between the two models and observations must be due to a weak representation of the interannual variability. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society |
author2 |
Spanish Government Regional Government of Castile and Leon |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nieto, Susana Dolores Frías, M. Rodríguez‐Puebla, Concepción |
spellingShingle |
Nieto, Susana Dolores Frías, M. Rodríguez‐Puebla, Concepción Assessing two different climatic models and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the description of winter precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula |
author_facet |
Nieto, Susana Dolores Frías, M. Rodríguez‐Puebla, Concepción |
author_sort |
Nieto, Susana |
title |
Assessing two different climatic models and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the description of winter precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula |
title_short |
Assessing two different climatic models and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the description of winter precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula |
title_full |
Assessing two different climatic models and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the description of winter precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula |
title_fullStr |
Assessing two different climatic models and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the description of winter precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing two different climatic models and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the description of winter precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula |
title_sort |
assessing two different climatic models and the ncep–ncar reanalysis data for the description of winter precipitation in the iberian peninsula |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2004 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.999 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.999 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.999 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 24, issue 3, page 361-376 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.999 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
24 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
361 |
op_container_end_page |
376 |
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1800747148550078464 |