Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin
Abstract Water scarcity is a major challenge facing many regions worldwide, especially arid and semi‐arid areas that are increasingly vulnerable to climate change. This study aimed to project water availability in the Amu Darya Basin (ADB) of Central Asia under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SS...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.8490 2024-06-23T07:57:19+00:00 Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin Salehie, Obaidullah Jamal, Mohamad Hidayat bin Ismail, Tarmizi bin Harun, Sobri Bin Shahid, Shamsuddin 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.8490 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.8490 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2024 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8490 2024-06-06T04:20:03Z Abstract Water scarcity is a major challenge facing many regions worldwide, especially arid and semi‐arid areas that are increasingly vulnerable to climate change. This study aimed to project water availability in the Amu Darya Basin (ADB) of Central Asia under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) during two upcoming periods (2020–2059 and 2060–2099). The study used a robust machine learning approach, namely a Random Forest (RF) model, to simulate Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data from precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin). It then incorporated precipitation, Tmax and Tmin from four selected CMIP6 GCMs, into a water storage model to project spatiotemporal changes in water availability across the basin. The study also evaluated the relative impacts of land use and population on TWS. Results indicate an increase in TWS by approximately 4 cm in the basin's eastern, northwestern and southwestern regions in both future periods, while a decrease by approximately −4 cm in the remaining areas. These projections suggest that TWS will decline in densely populated regions and increase in certain intensively cultivated areas. The most pronounced increase in TWS is anticipated in the snow‐covered Tundra climate zone of the basin. This is attributed to the melting of glaciers, which contributes to runoff in the tributaries of the Amu River. The findings highlight the importance of considering climate change and socioeconomic factors when projecting water availability in arid and semi‐arid regions. The projected changes in TWS have important implications for water resources management in the ADB, particularly in densely populated and intensively cultivated areas. Article in Journal/Newspaper Tundra Wiley Online Library International Journal of Climatology |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
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English |
description |
Abstract Water scarcity is a major challenge facing many regions worldwide, especially arid and semi‐arid areas that are increasingly vulnerable to climate change. This study aimed to project water availability in the Amu Darya Basin (ADB) of Central Asia under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) during two upcoming periods (2020–2059 and 2060–2099). The study used a robust machine learning approach, namely a Random Forest (RF) model, to simulate Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data from precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin). It then incorporated precipitation, Tmax and Tmin from four selected CMIP6 GCMs, into a water storage model to project spatiotemporal changes in water availability across the basin. The study also evaluated the relative impacts of land use and population on TWS. Results indicate an increase in TWS by approximately 4 cm in the basin's eastern, northwestern and southwestern regions in both future periods, while a decrease by approximately −4 cm in the remaining areas. These projections suggest that TWS will decline in densely populated regions and increase in certain intensively cultivated areas. The most pronounced increase in TWS is anticipated in the snow‐covered Tundra climate zone of the basin. This is attributed to the melting of glaciers, which contributes to runoff in the tributaries of the Amu River. The findings highlight the importance of considering climate change and socioeconomic factors when projecting water availability in arid and semi‐arid regions. The projected changes in TWS have important implications for water resources management in the ADB, particularly in densely populated and intensively cultivated areas. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Salehie, Obaidullah Jamal, Mohamad Hidayat bin Ismail, Tarmizi bin Harun, Sobri Bin Shahid, Shamsuddin |
spellingShingle |
Salehie, Obaidullah Jamal, Mohamad Hidayat bin Ismail, Tarmizi bin Harun, Sobri Bin Shahid, Shamsuddin Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin |
author_facet |
Salehie, Obaidullah Jamal, Mohamad Hidayat bin Ismail, Tarmizi bin Harun, Sobri Bin Shahid, Shamsuddin |
author_sort |
Salehie, Obaidullah |
title |
Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin |
title_short |
Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin |
title_full |
Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin |
title_fullStr |
Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin |
title_sort |
projection of future water availability in the amu darya basin |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.8490 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.8490 |
genre |
Tundra |
genre_facet |
Tundra |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8490 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
_version_ |
1802650889296543744 |