Evaluating the Alaska Blocking Index as an indicator of wildfire potential in Alaska's central eastern interior
Abstract Increased Arctic air temperatures and evaporative fluxes have coincided with more frequent and destructive high‐latitude wildfires. Arctic fires impact ecosystems and people, especially at the community‐level by degrading air quality, destroying agriculture, and threatening life and propert...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.8450 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.8450 |
id |
crwiley:10.1002/joc.8450 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crwiley:10.1002/joc.8450 2024-06-23T07:50:21+00:00 Evaluating the Alaska Blocking Index as an indicator of wildfire potential in Alaska's central eastern interior Ballinger, Thomas J. Lader, Rick T. Bieniek, Peter A. Strader, Heidi Ziel, Robert Bhatt, Uma S. Borries‐Strigle, Cecilia Hostler, Joshua Stevens, Eric Waigl, Christine F. York, Alison National Science Foundation 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.8450 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.8450 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ International Journal of Climatology volume 44, issue 7, page 2230-2245 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2024 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8450 2024-06-11T04:42:53Z Abstract Increased Arctic air temperatures and evaporative fluxes have coincided with more frequent and destructive high‐latitude wildfires. Arctic fires impact ecosystems and people, especially at the community‐level by degrading air quality, destroying agriculture, and threatening life and property. Central Eastern Interior (CEI) Alaska is one such region that has recently experienced the effects of wildfire activity related to warming air temperatures. To improve our ability to identify fire weather events and assess their potential for extreme outbreaks at actionable lead times relevant to fire weather forecasters and managers, new metrics and approaches need to be established and applied toward understanding the physical mechanisms underlying such wildland fire characteristics. Our study uses a new, regional atmospheric circulation metric, the Alaska Blocking Index (ABI), to describe midtropospheric air pressure around Alaska, which is subsequently related to CEI fire weather conditions at the Predictive Service Area (PSA) scale in climatological and extreme events frameworks. Of note, during years of high fire activity, Build‐Up Index (BUI) values tend to be anomalously high during the duff and drought phases across the CEI PSAs, though comparatively lower BUI values are still associated with high fire activity in the Tanana Zone‐South (AK03S) PSA. Likewise, extreme BUI values are strongly tied to high ABI values and well‐defined upper‐air ridging circulation patterns in the duff and drought periods. The statistical skill of mean daily ABI values in the 6–10 day period preceding extreme duff period BUI values is modest ( τ 2 > 14%) in the Upper Yukon Valley (AK02) PSA, a hotbed of wildland fire activity. Extremes in ABI and CEI BUI often occur in tandem, yielding regional predictability of upper‐air weather patterns and extremes and underlying surface weather conditions, by statistical and/or dynamical forecast models, imperative for local community and governmental organizations to effectively manage ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Alaska Yukon Wiley Online Library Arctic Duff ENVELOPE(-60.029,-60.029,-62.450,-62.450) Yukon International Journal of Climatology |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Increased Arctic air temperatures and evaporative fluxes have coincided with more frequent and destructive high‐latitude wildfires. Arctic fires impact ecosystems and people, especially at the community‐level by degrading air quality, destroying agriculture, and threatening life and property. Central Eastern Interior (CEI) Alaska is one such region that has recently experienced the effects of wildfire activity related to warming air temperatures. To improve our ability to identify fire weather events and assess their potential for extreme outbreaks at actionable lead times relevant to fire weather forecasters and managers, new metrics and approaches need to be established and applied toward understanding the physical mechanisms underlying such wildland fire characteristics. Our study uses a new, regional atmospheric circulation metric, the Alaska Blocking Index (ABI), to describe midtropospheric air pressure around Alaska, which is subsequently related to CEI fire weather conditions at the Predictive Service Area (PSA) scale in climatological and extreme events frameworks. Of note, during years of high fire activity, Build‐Up Index (BUI) values tend to be anomalously high during the duff and drought phases across the CEI PSAs, though comparatively lower BUI values are still associated with high fire activity in the Tanana Zone‐South (AK03S) PSA. Likewise, extreme BUI values are strongly tied to high ABI values and well‐defined upper‐air ridging circulation patterns in the duff and drought periods. The statistical skill of mean daily ABI values in the 6–10 day period preceding extreme duff period BUI values is modest ( τ 2 > 14%) in the Upper Yukon Valley (AK02) PSA, a hotbed of wildland fire activity. Extremes in ABI and CEI BUI often occur in tandem, yielding regional predictability of upper‐air weather patterns and extremes and underlying surface weather conditions, by statistical and/or dynamical forecast models, imperative for local community and governmental organizations to effectively manage ... |
author2 |
National Science Foundation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ballinger, Thomas J. Lader, Rick T. Bieniek, Peter A. Strader, Heidi Ziel, Robert Bhatt, Uma S. Borries‐Strigle, Cecilia Hostler, Joshua Stevens, Eric Waigl, Christine F. York, Alison |
spellingShingle |
Ballinger, Thomas J. Lader, Rick T. Bieniek, Peter A. Strader, Heidi Ziel, Robert Bhatt, Uma S. Borries‐Strigle, Cecilia Hostler, Joshua Stevens, Eric Waigl, Christine F. York, Alison Evaluating the Alaska Blocking Index as an indicator of wildfire potential in Alaska's central eastern interior |
author_facet |
Ballinger, Thomas J. Lader, Rick T. Bieniek, Peter A. Strader, Heidi Ziel, Robert Bhatt, Uma S. Borries‐Strigle, Cecilia Hostler, Joshua Stevens, Eric Waigl, Christine F. York, Alison |
author_sort |
Ballinger, Thomas J. |
title |
Evaluating the Alaska Blocking Index as an indicator of wildfire potential in Alaska's central eastern interior |
title_short |
Evaluating the Alaska Blocking Index as an indicator of wildfire potential in Alaska's central eastern interior |
title_full |
Evaluating the Alaska Blocking Index as an indicator of wildfire potential in Alaska's central eastern interior |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating the Alaska Blocking Index as an indicator of wildfire potential in Alaska's central eastern interior |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating the Alaska Blocking Index as an indicator of wildfire potential in Alaska's central eastern interior |
title_sort |
evaluating the alaska blocking index as an indicator of wildfire potential in alaska's central eastern interior |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.8450 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.8450 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-60.029,-60.029,-62.450,-62.450) |
geographic |
Arctic Duff Yukon |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Duff Yukon |
genre |
Arctic Alaska Yukon |
genre_facet |
Arctic Alaska Yukon |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 44, issue 7, page 2230-2245 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8450 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
_version_ |
1802641214622662656 |