The influence of Antarctic sea‐ice loss on Northern Hemisphere cold surges and associated compound events

• Published in: International Journal of Climatology
• Main Authors: Su, Tianhua, Chen, Jie, Li, Lu, Toniazzo, Thomas, Mooney, Priscilla
• Other Authors: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Norges Forskningsråd
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2024
• Subjects: Antarctic; Arctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Climate change; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.8354; https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.8354

Abstract The synoptic cold surge is a weather event that frequently occurs in the Northern Hemisphere, often causing severe damage accompanied with intense winds and precipitation. It is reported that the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation can affect the cold surge. However, on interacting with tropical circulation, the cold surge potentially links to the Antarctic sea‐ice loss with influence extending to Tropics. Therefore, this research aims to investigate the potential link between Antarctic sea‐ice loss and Northern Hemisphere cold surges and corresponding wind–precipitation compound events. To study this link, twin numerical experiments using a physically based atmosphere model with a prescribed 30% Antarctic sea‐ice loss scenario were used. The results show that the cold surge occurs more frequently in most regions of the world, except for central North America and central Eurasia. In Europe, the cold surges occur closer to the lower latitudes in the Antarctic sea‐ice loss scenario. Additionally, the Antarctic sea‐ice loss can result in intensified wind and precipitation extremes within compound events. The intensified precipitation extremes are caused by increased moisture transportation by tropical easterlies and higher local temperature after the cold surge occurrence, providing more moisture available for precipitation in East Asia and East North America, respectively. Overall, the results of the numerical experiments provide evidence that Antarctic sea‐ice loss influences cold surges in Northern Hemisphere through atmospheric teleconnections. It is important to continue investigating the link between Antarctic sea‐ice loss and weather events like cold surges, as this research can help improve our understanding of the impacts of polar climate change on lower latitudes.