Role of mean, variability and teleconnection of clouds behind Indian summer monsoon rainfall
Abstract Skilful prediction of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR) at least one season in advance has great socio‐economic value. The ISM is a lifeline for about a sixth of the world's population. The ISMR prediction remained a challenging problem with the subcritical skill...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.8076 2024-06-02T08:11:37+00:00 Role of mean, variability and teleconnection of clouds behind Indian summer monsoon rainfall Hazra, Anupam Dutta, Ushnanshu Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S. Pokhrel, Samir Konwar, Mahen 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.8076 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.8076 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 43, issue 9, page 4099-4118 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2023 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8076 2024-05-03T12:05:49Z Abstract Skilful prediction of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR) at least one season in advance has great socio‐economic value. The ISM is a lifeline for about a sixth of the world's population. The ISMR prediction remained a challenging problem with the subcritical skills of the dynamical models due to a limited understanding of the interaction among clouds, convection and circulation. In this study, we have analysed the seasonal mean of high cloud fraction, ice mixing ratio and ice cloud fraction from satellite and reanalysis and demonstrated their importance for ISM. The variability of the mixing ratio of cloud ice in different time scales (3–7 days, 10–20 days and 30–60 days bands) is also examined from reanalysis during ISM. Here, we have shown the teleconnection of different cloud variables over the ISM region with global sea surface temperature. We found that they are tied with slowly varying forcing (e.g., El Niño and Southern Oscillation). Besides, the correlation of cloud ice with different indices (Niño, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and Extratropics) may enhance the potential predictability of ISMR. The representation of deep convective clouds, which involve the ice‐phase processes in a coupled climate model, strongly modulates ISMR variability in association with global predictors. The results from the two sensitivity simulations using coupled global climate model (CGCM) demonstrate the importance of the cloud ice on ISM rainfall predictability. Therefore, this study provides a scientific basis for improving the simulation of the seasonal ISMR by developing the physical processes of the cloud on a subseasonal time scale and motivating further research in this direction. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Indian Pacific International Journal of Climatology 43 9 4099 4118 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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language |
English |
description |
Abstract Skilful prediction of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR) at least one season in advance has great socio‐economic value. The ISM is a lifeline for about a sixth of the world's population. The ISMR prediction remained a challenging problem with the subcritical skills of the dynamical models due to a limited understanding of the interaction among clouds, convection and circulation. In this study, we have analysed the seasonal mean of high cloud fraction, ice mixing ratio and ice cloud fraction from satellite and reanalysis and demonstrated their importance for ISM. The variability of the mixing ratio of cloud ice in different time scales (3–7 days, 10–20 days and 30–60 days bands) is also examined from reanalysis during ISM. Here, we have shown the teleconnection of different cloud variables over the ISM region with global sea surface temperature. We found that they are tied with slowly varying forcing (e.g., El Niño and Southern Oscillation). Besides, the correlation of cloud ice with different indices (Niño, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and Extratropics) may enhance the potential predictability of ISMR. The representation of deep convective clouds, which involve the ice‐phase processes in a coupled climate model, strongly modulates ISMR variability in association with global predictors. The results from the two sensitivity simulations using coupled global climate model (CGCM) demonstrate the importance of the cloud ice on ISM rainfall predictability. Therefore, this study provides a scientific basis for improving the simulation of the seasonal ISMR by developing the physical processes of the cloud on a subseasonal time scale and motivating further research in this direction. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hazra, Anupam Dutta, Ushnanshu Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S. Pokhrel, Samir Konwar, Mahen |
spellingShingle |
Hazra, Anupam Dutta, Ushnanshu Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S. Pokhrel, Samir Konwar, Mahen Role of mean, variability and teleconnection of clouds behind Indian summer monsoon rainfall |
author_facet |
Hazra, Anupam Dutta, Ushnanshu Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S. Pokhrel, Samir Konwar, Mahen |
author_sort |
Hazra, Anupam |
title |
Role of mean, variability and teleconnection of clouds behind Indian summer monsoon rainfall |
title_short |
Role of mean, variability and teleconnection of clouds behind Indian summer monsoon rainfall |
title_full |
Role of mean, variability and teleconnection of clouds behind Indian summer monsoon rainfall |
title_fullStr |
Role of mean, variability and teleconnection of clouds behind Indian summer monsoon rainfall |
title_full_unstemmed |
Role of mean, variability and teleconnection of clouds behind Indian summer monsoon rainfall |
title_sort |
role of mean, variability and teleconnection of clouds behind indian summer monsoon rainfall |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.8076 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.8076 |
geographic |
Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 43, issue 9, page 4099-4118 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8076 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
43 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
4099 |
op_container_end_page |
4118 |
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1800757823273959424 |