Regime shift increase in East Asia's summer extreme hot day frequency across the late 1990s
Abstract Here we analysed the long‐term change in extreme hot days (EHDs) in East Asia during boreal summer (June–July–August) since 1979, where EHDs was defined as days exceeding or equalling the 90th percentile threshold of the climatological (1991–2020) daily and . EHDs frequency occurrence in Ea...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.7976 2024-06-02T08:02:25+00:00 Regime shift increase in East Asia's summer extreme hot day frequency across the late 1990s Lee, Yong‐Han Yeh, Sang‐Wook Hong, Jin‐Sil Shin, Jongsoo An, Soon‐Il National Research Foundation 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7976 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7976 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.7976 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7976 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 43, issue 5, page 2305-2317 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2023 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7976 2024-05-03T12:05:36Z Abstract Here we analysed the long‐term change in extreme hot days (EHDs) in East Asia during boreal summer (June–July–August) since 1979, where EHDs was defined as days exceeding or equalling the 90th percentile threshold of the climatological (1991–2020) daily and . EHDs frequency occurrence in East Asia during summer showed not only an increasing trend but also a distinct regime shift increase since the late 1990s. Based on this regime shift, we divided these years into two periods, P1 (1979–1998) and P2 (1999–2021), and found that different physical processes operated for each period's EHDs variability. P2's EHDs was related to the stationary wave originating from both the North Atlantic Ocean and the Indo‐Pacific warm pool, but these influences did not appear in P1. To investigate whether the observed regime shift increase was caused by natural variability or greenhouse gas concentration increases, we conducted a CO 2 quadrupling experiment as well as a present‐day experiment with a fixed CO 2 concentration using the Community Earth System Model with 28 ensemble members. We demonstrated that the regime shift increase of East Asian EHDs occurrences was due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. We further discussed the influence of Arctic sea ice reduction due to global warming on EHDs occurrences in East Asia. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming North Atlantic Sea ice Wiley Online Library Arctic Pacific International Journal of Climatology 43 5 2305 2317 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract Here we analysed the long‐term change in extreme hot days (EHDs) in East Asia during boreal summer (June–July–August) since 1979, where EHDs was defined as days exceeding or equalling the 90th percentile threshold of the climatological (1991–2020) daily and . EHDs frequency occurrence in East Asia during summer showed not only an increasing trend but also a distinct regime shift increase since the late 1990s. Based on this regime shift, we divided these years into two periods, P1 (1979–1998) and P2 (1999–2021), and found that different physical processes operated for each period's EHDs variability. P2's EHDs was related to the stationary wave originating from both the North Atlantic Ocean and the Indo‐Pacific warm pool, but these influences did not appear in P1. To investigate whether the observed regime shift increase was caused by natural variability or greenhouse gas concentration increases, we conducted a CO 2 quadrupling experiment as well as a present‐day experiment with a fixed CO 2 concentration using the Community Earth System Model with 28 ensemble members. We demonstrated that the regime shift increase of East Asian EHDs occurrences was due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. We further discussed the influence of Arctic sea ice reduction due to global warming on EHDs occurrences in East Asia. |
author2 |
National Research Foundation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lee, Yong‐Han Yeh, Sang‐Wook Hong, Jin‐Sil Shin, Jongsoo An, Soon‐Il |
spellingShingle |
Lee, Yong‐Han Yeh, Sang‐Wook Hong, Jin‐Sil Shin, Jongsoo An, Soon‐Il Regime shift increase in East Asia's summer extreme hot day frequency across the late 1990s |
author_facet |
Lee, Yong‐Han Yeh, Sang‐Wook Hong, Jin‐Sil Shin, Jongsoo An, Soon‐Il |
author_sort |
Lee, Yong‐Han |
title |
Regime shift increase in East Asia's summer extreme hot day frequency across the late 1990s |
title_short |
Regime shift increase in East Asia's summer extreme hot day frequency across the late 1990s |
title_full |
Regime shift increase in East Asia's summer extreme hot day frequency across the late 1990s |
title_fullStr |
Regime shift increase in East Asia's summer extreme hot day frequency across the late 1990s |
title_full_unstemmed |
Regime shift increase in East Asia's summer extreme hot day frequency across the late 1990s |
title_sort |
regime shift increase in east asia's summer extreme hot day frequency across the late 1990s |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7976 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7976 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.7976 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7976 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Global warming North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 43, issue 5, page 2305-2317 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7976 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
43 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
2305 |
op_container_end_page |
2317 |
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1800746910912348160 |